I’ve been on a downswing for about six weeks, so I was reviewing my results and looking for patterns to see if any adjustments were appropriate.
I noticed that I’m taking serious losses, relatively speaking, at FanDuel. Losses for the calendar year on the book are 2.5x what I’m down anywhere else. Has anyone else seen poor VB results with FanDuel? Is there a reason one book would underperform so severely or is it likely just coincidence?
How many bets placed mate? If variance persist first solution will be to increase min edge and drop time, not because they will bring the variance to an immediate halt but because you’ll be motivated to place more bets knowing your settings are that tight.
I’m getting down between 300 and 400 bets per week. I run 300h on weekdays and 8h on weekends. I was doing 3.5% and up, but since this streak has persisted longer and been more up and down than most I upped it to 4% this morning.
It just seems odd that I’m only down for the year-to-date at three books: Everygame and William Hill slightly down and FanDuel down big. All others are plus money YTD.
Are you on a positive CLV?
Yes, in fact my CLV has been slowly increasing. (Coming up on four years of bet data, so all big picture changes are slow .)
Nevertheless, almost 30% of my bankroll has found a new home during this losing streak.
The more bets we place the bigger the chances are that we will experience long losing streaks, or wins!
Intellectually, I know. But trust the math is easy until about 30% down with no floor in sight.