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A little over a month, with more than 1,000 bets—Is this performance normal? Can anyone offer some advice? I would be very grateful.
kelly criterion 30%,max stake 1.5%,value2.5-20,odds1.5-2.6
Can you share your settings? What sharp bookmakers are you betting on? Are you placing the bet with the same odds that were identified by Rebelbetting or do you place the bet after the odds have changed? 1000 bets is not a sufficient number to draw any conclusion - probably with the small edge that sharps offer you might need 10k bets.
I had a similar experience with this service after about 2000 bets (and wasting lots of hours) therefore I stopped using it. I disagree with the moderator here 1000 bets are INDEED a sufficient number to draw conclusions, nothing will drastically change the next 1000 bets or 3000 bets…same picks and valleys, profitable weeks that will be wiped off sooner or later, if you’re lucky you will be back to 0.
I disagree because there is a thing called the law of large numbers and yes 1000 or 2000 bets feels like a lot but the important thing to look at is if the CLV is positive or not and if it is you just have to continue because it is mathematically impossible to stay in the red forever
You must up the value. 1.5% is way too low. The basic/default settings work pretty good!
Actually it is “possible” to stay in red forever - but highly unlikely.
As a curiosity, what value % do people set in order to have a decent amount of bets? I agree it seems very low but I am not sure what type of expected value is typical. I am currently in the process of priming my bookies and taking bonuses etc and expect to make a trial in a month or so.
No it’s not, if you don’t stop betting. Do you know what forever means my guy?
Okay dude… you have your opinion and I maintain my statement that it is in fact mathematically possible to stay in red forever.
Oxford dictionary gives examples as “for all future time, for always”.
Practical impossibility is not the same as a mathematical impossibility- learn the difference.
I have it between 3.5 and 5% depending on TTS Time To Start).
Settings just need tweaking back to default I think.
Put percentage value up to min 3. That should help with the varience a bit. Under this is a bit rocky
Kelly, Max Stake are fine. Odds put to 1.4-2.9 which is what I have.