I am writing my first post here. Nice to meet you all!
I am taking my time to write this because I want to share my thoughts about a particular value betting opportunity: Parlay ValueBetting. I did not find any similar discussion on this community and I want to understand what point of view you have and if you are using this mechanism. Here we go.
The main issue that each of us faces or will face is being limited by the bookies. Being limited / banned can drastically change our profitability and the longer we are able to fly under the radar, the better will be for our pockets.
There are many ways to remain under cover: rounding our bets (possibly multiples of 5 / 10), only betting on major leagues, focusing on a limited number of sports, betting on live games, loading our deposits steadily, keeping stakes below betting limits and so on.
Parlay ValueBetting is also an option. Bookies usually prefer parlay bets over single bets because, thanks to this mechanism, they can extract more juice from us.
However, what happens if each leg in a parlay has a positive EV? Can this betting mechanism be profitable and sustainable? Let consider the example below.
What happens if we create a parlay with the two above legs? The resulting parlay should have the below profitability (I hope my math is right ).
Team ESCA Gaming Implied Real Probability: 72.2%
Giulio Zeppieri Implied Real Probability: 59.1%
Parlay Odd: 2.41
Parlay Estimated Probability: 42.7%
Parlay EV: 2.82
If this is the case, then parlays may be a suitable betting opportunity. What we have to consider at the end is if the combination of parlay odds and parlay EVs is in line with our betting strategy. If so (eg. parlay odds within 1.5 and 2.5; parlay EV above 3), parlays should be perfectly viable. Then, we should choose our betting stake as usual using our fractional Kelly criterion.
Is it so? What do you think about my reasoning?
Have a nice RebelBetting day!!!