ive been betting for about 2 weeks now,and like a few others, I too have been on a huge downswing.
I’ve read all the posts I can to see if I’m doing anything wrong/what I could be doing differently but I can’t see anything obvious so I thought I’d share my results and settings to see if anyone could give me some advice on how to make this profitable.
Thank you loads in advance, any help would be really appreciated
P.s. as I can only upload 1 image as I’m a new member I’ll post my other screen shots below.
Hey, 1st month I went down 200 Euro and used the profit guarantee for a 2nd month.
2nd month I went up 100 Euro so I was down 100 still so I stopped for a while.
Started again last week and I’m up about 60 Euro so I’m currently -40 in total with 1200 bets.
I bet on quite a wide range of odds so my average odds are about 2.2. This means I would probably need at least 2k bets before I can see average returns not determined by luck alone.
I see your avg odds when betting is 1.93 which is lower, but I still think you would need quite a lot of bets before the CLV and Yield match up in a pure objective way not just being determined by luck. 422 bets isn’t that much in the grand scheme of things
Thanks for the reply.
R.e. my settings, is there anything on there that stands out as different to yours as you said you’ve been in profit this week whereas mine has only gone downhill…fast.
Remember, you maybe in totally different time zones and therefore get different bets even if you had exactly the same set up.
Even in the same timezone you may bet at different times, so settings whilst useful are no guarantee to get the same outcome.
Your CLV is +2.92% so you are betting on profitable bets.
However, I think your low stakes and the fact that you are rounding them makes the Kelly criterion staking strategy ineffective. Basically, you’re not using the full potential of Kelly and not getting maximum value as all your bets are basically 2, 3 or 4 GBP. Perhaps this might be an explanation?
These are my current settings. I change them every once in a while, especially the “Time to start” I change depending on my bankroll size. if I have many pending bets I reduce the time to start quite substancially.
Thank you too for your help, it’s really really appreciated.
Going on from what you said, I’ll change in the settings to not round up.
R.e. the low stakes i.e. anything from £2-5…if I were to increase this, surely this would only make my downtrend worse?
Thanks again and look forward to your help and input
You have conservative max odds. Default is 2.90. You run with 2.40 and you average odds is quite low. You should consider raising it.
On another note: Do not change the settings too frequently. You need 1000+ bets to draw decent conclusions.
I changed my odds a couple of days ago due to the high losses as I thought this would reduce the variance I’m experiencing.
I thought the lower the odds, while still using his EV, although there might be less bets to bet on, the wins should be higher
Variance can work both ways.
The wins won’t be higher, they’re just gonna be more frequent and lower because of the small odds range, like @totrashbin01 said, you shouldn’t tweak settings frequently. 15 hours with a 5% min edge is a killer combo, with a small bank such as yours, i will advise you don’t go higher than 15 hours as you need to rotate and turnover your bankroll quickly. If anything i will recommend dropping to lesser more convinient time till match start on weekends.
Thanks mate, I’ll do a tweak on my settings now.
That is no exactly true. With a higher odds range you open up for more possible value bets. It is great with +5%/15h… If there are enough bets…
Most bettors will have to open up the range on weekdays to find enough value bets.