Arbs and value bets will all eventually get account flagged and closed, so I’m looking for alternatives. One thought was a psuedo arb where you bet both sides, but leave the middle exposed. For example in American Football, it’s very rare to have games decided by less than 3 points, so you give 3 points on the favorite and take the moneyline for the underdog. Example:
Team A -2.5 (-102 or 1.98) -180
Team B +2.5 (-110 or 2.4) +140
I’ll bet Team A -2.5 points and bet team B moneyline. My odds are -102 (1.98) for team A and +140 (2.4) for team B. This guarantees a profit for either side HOWEVER, if team A wins by 2 points or less, then I lose BOTH sides of the bet. I suppose It’s the reverse of middle betting.
This psuedo Arb is 7.83%
Outcomes of NFL games in the last decade with less than 3 point margin happened ~6% of the time, including ties. In the event of a tie, team A bet is lost. Team B moneyline bet is refunded, but the 6% risk does not distinguish tie scenarios.
Theoretical long term profit is 1-2%.
But a potential confounding factor is the 6% of games that finished with <3pt margin is based on the entire sample size of all NFL games played regardless of the point spread. It’s very likely that if we only looked at games where the spread was <3pts, there would be a higher percentage of outcomes that were decided by < 3 points.
Thoughts?