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I bet a flat 1% of my current bankroll on every bet.
wow, this is wild.
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Sorry for the bad downswing. What bookmakers are you using? And have you made any significant changes in your strategy?
I would not recommend flat staking, especially not with such high max odds (we recommend max 3.00). Flat staking should on average give lower variance (and profits), but 1% of your bankroll might actually be a lot of risk when betting a small value bet with near 4.00 in odds.
Woah! First off, your odds, please reduce your max odds to 2.8 or sumn’
Then increase value percentage. 15% are common occurances on weekends
Lastly, Kudos to you for placing 7k bets with such little reward. Your determination is on another level.
Im only using Bet365 and Unibet. Although I’m limited on Unibet.
No significant changes. Although I did try lowering the “time to match start”, which you can see as the “flat” CLV part at the right side of the image. I’ve now returned to 24 hours to match start.
Do you really think 3.0 instead of 4.0 max odds is gonna make that much of a difference? I mean, i guess I can lower the max odds and observe, but over the long run I feel like the decrease in amount I’d be able to bet (which would in turn lower CLV per day) would decrease the amount of money I’d be able to make. (Exponential return and all that.)
Besides, my average odds is only 2.32, or maybe that’s high?
Bruhh variance isn’t your middle name, i recommend the default settings, you can’t go wrong with that. 2.8 max odds, 3% min value,(4% on basketball, time 5hours max for basketball).
Your time of 24h isn’t bad, you might want to tighten on weekends to increase turnover. With this presets you still will be able to place loads of bets if you’re determined.
Thanks for the advice! I’ll try those settings this weekend and next week to see how they perform.
I’ll try and make a post here every 1000 bets going forward.
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I don’t understand what the issue is with 4.0+ odds.
That’s about 25% outcome probability (1/4.0) which is not rare at all. Besides after placings dozens of bets daily, if not hundreds, then even 2-3 negative standard deviations would reverse back to the CLV within the day easily, and make variance feel like nothing.
Value is still value, be it 2.0 or 25.0 odds.
So why are high odds not recommended?
That was my thought-process too. I know I’ve seen someone post their timeline with 14000+ euro profit with 4.0 max odds, without msasive variance in their results. But I’ll lower the maximum odds for the week to 2.8, and see if there’s any actual difference.
I feel like my downswing is just that, a downswing, and I’m getting unlucky. But maybe there’s something else going on that I don’t know about?
You can play around with the bet simulator here to see the differences when betting on avg odds 2.00 compared to 4.00.
Since the variance (standard deviation) is higher, there is also a greater chance of not being profitable, even after a significant number of bets:
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I think I understand now! That tool was really useful, thanks!
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8000 bets update.
Jeeezz, how?
Just how? U changed settings or something right?
Updated settings in the bottom picture. Only changed max odds to 2.8 from 4.0.
That’s not too bad as there are pple on this forum using that range, but why did you change your odds range? To increase turnover and trades? Or you where testing out a new strategy?
Yes, low odds over high odds anyday, anytime. Did your variance episode start when you where still on high odds? Or it was after u made the change to reduce?
I’ve only lowered my max odds during these last 1000 bets, so the start of the downswing and most of it has been during high max odds.
All’s good then mate, just keep plugging away. You can create a secondary preset with this setting Value >5% time=15-36hrs. Odds 1-2.8. Exclude bbal though, for basketball u can use this particular preset value>4% time <4hours odds 1.2-2.2
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