Results After 1 Week - Is this normal?

Hi Guys, just thought i would post to try and get a bit of feedback, first time poster, so go easy :slight_smile:

Results below so far. is this standard having only place just over 1000 bets? I trust the process (i think)

Also, after looking at the below, any hints/tips would be gratefully received.

Rebel - So Far

Hi,

Don’t worry, this is normal. The variance will play a big role when the number of bets is low. To visualize this, please check out this bet simulator.

Enter your value betting stats:

  • Number of bets - the number of bets you have placed
  • Average stake - your average stake
  • Average coefficient - your average odds
  • Value - your CLV percentage

Then click run to see ONE simulation of the set number of bets.

Note where the green profit line ends. Then click run, again and again, taking note on where the profit line ends.

As you can see, with a low number of bets, the profit line will vary a lot due to the nature of variance.

Now, change the number of bets to for instance β€˜5000’. Then follow the same procedure. You will notice that you will almost never end up in the negative with a higher number of bets. And it will follow the Expected Value line closer. This is because variance plays a smaller role when the number of bets is greater.

The more bets you place, the variance will have far less effect and your results will over time move closer and align with your expected value. Please read more here why the volume of bets matters.

Great, thanks. Will give it a try.

Getting even worse as the day has gone on. Surely this is more than just a bit of negative variance?

I must be doing something wrong.