Here are some results and reflections after 1 month of value betting. All comments welcome.
I see 4 keys to successful value betting:
- Maximise EV (i.e., CLV profit)
- Minimise risk of restriction
- Bankroll management
- Emotional/psychological detachment
The first 3 are well-known to readers of this forum, but I see less written about number 4 and that’s the area where I struggle most.
Balancing the first 3 is a matter of personal circumstances are priorities. I’ve been gambling for over 40 years and have advanced degrees in statistics (which I undertook because my interest in gambling manifested in my early teens) so I have a high risk tolerance and a good understanding of EV and variance. I have always assumed the “pay for tips” services were a scam, but I was intrigued by what I had seen about RebelBetting and, because I had completed all tasks in an online game I previously used as escapism, I thought I’d test it for a month. I expected the edge to be relatively small (similar to advantage blackjack) and was amazed at high high it is. Kudos to RebelBetting for the awesome algorithm!
I started by depositing with bet365, expekt, and WilliamHillSE because I could benefit from signup bonuses. I set my initial bankroll to SEK30k despite only having around 10k in those accounts because I am fortunate to be financially comfortable so could redeposit if I lost it all. Because I was only planning to try this for a month, being restricted wasn’t a massive concern although I was by no means reckless. After a week I became more cautious and essentially only bet on tennis with bet365 and baseball on ATG. I was fortunate to run extremely good early and my bankroll grew. Most days I put my entire bankroll on the line; not optimal bankroll management but certainly the best way to maximise CLV profit and I would assume prevents against restriction (since the bookies know many winners subsequently lose everything). There were many days when I managed to outlay my entire bet365 bankroll of around 60k within 1 hour of waking up.
My biggest challenge is remaining emotionally detached. I know, intellectually, that if I can lay 40k of bets at 5% CLV within an hour in the morning then I have earnt 2k. I understand variance and know I can’t affect the outcome, but I have struggled to avoid thinking about my bets and checking up on them. If I could “bet and forget” then I could potentially continue with value betting, but since I have a demanding job and a family I can’t afford to be thinking about value betting during the day. I think I may continue for another month and hope that experience will help me become more detached, but I have found it to be a struggle. I have never sought professional help but I consider myself to be a gambling addict. The downside of the addiction has always been in the emotional impact rather than financial (online poker was a dark time despite being financially beneficial). My addiction is very much under control at the moment, but I am very conscious that value betting needs to be a distraction and cannot be in my thoughts throughout the day. Wish me luck!
Thank you Pop for sharing.
Great results!. You have managed to have a very high “Avg Value” of 8.12%. My challenge is to find enough value bets with so high EV. How did you manage to do that? Can you share your settings (maybe the ones that you have used the most)?
Im using Bet365 and betting on pretty much everything and anything with value. If I would only go with tennis for example I would find it impossible to bet anywhere close to my entire depo.
almost in the same boat… Your average value is high… good job… any special treatment on that?
By the way, I have almost the same problem with gambling addiction… I think I’m a bit obsessed with value betting since the results I got were good enough for me, but maybe this is taking too much time out of my daily life…
Thanks. Here are my default filters.
I started with default settings, then increased max odds to 4, then further increased them to 5. You can see that my average odds are on the high side, but I can tolerate the variance. I understand that setting the max time to start at 30 hours is not recommended, as betting too far in the future supposedly increases chance of restriction, but that’s a risk I am willing to take. I try to only lay bets more than a day away if value is over 10%, both to minimise chance of restriction and to make it possible to rollover my bankroll.
Although I have min value set at 3, I rarely place bets with value less than 5. This obviously limits my volume but maximised value. Here are my latest bets;
Can you share your staking (Kelly) settings?
What is your experience with Expekt?
I just got limited with “Snabbare” and looking for a new bookie to transfer the money to.
BTW, I can recommend Snabbare. Had a decent signup bonus and first bet offer.
Started with 2000SEK and got limited when I had 10+k profit; and they had lots of Value Bets.
They use SBTech as odds provider. Hopefully Expect do not use same oddsprovider…
You have to be careful when it comes to any addiction. I do not see VB as “betting” per se. I just log the bets and get on with my daily life. But sure, menatlly when I was in the red was not fun. It is absolutely right what they say. The most difficult part with VB is to withstand the mental impact during negative streaks/downswings; and I do not care what your markets and bookies are… the negative downs will come. On a positive note; the positive swings will also come
Good luck and appreciate any feedback and sharing of information.
Thanks for the feedback and thanks for tip about snabbare. Here are my staking settings. I have adjust for open bets turned off because my bankroll setting is less than my actual bankroll. I use that bankroll setting to size my bets at a level with which i am happy and i want to be able to outlay my entire bankroll.
I have not found much value on expekt, and I have found it slow to login. I have only placed 11 bets with them. The SEK1500 free bet was a nice bonus! From what I understand, Expekt, ATG, Leovegas, PAF, SpeedyBet, Unibet, and WilliamHill.se all use the same platform and have the same odds. I mainly use ATG.
I’m pretty much of the same oppinion when it comes to the bankroll management. I have increased my max odds now to get a “taste” of your settings. I plan to manage the variance by reduced Kelly to 10%. Idea is that I bet on a higher volume of bets but with lower stake. I have already seen that there are more high EV bets proposed. Lets give it a week or two and see what my new CLV will be.
Today CLV/Avg.EV stands at 3.42/5.84%.
Lol. Let’s see what they are after two weeks.
Ha det fint!
Tack! Ha det fint du med! Lycka till!
I hope you had a nice midsummer.
I have tried the higher odds settings now for a week and Kelly at 30% and no AFOP.
A month ago: CLV/Avg.EV stands at 3.42/5.84%.
Today (2022-06-26): CLV/Avg.EV stands at 3.61/6,21%.
A significant increase so thank you for sharing settings.
Hello what max odds did you increase to, what’s your odds range. Mine is 1-2.2(i wanna go 1-2.8) you recommend?