Hello All. I’ve not been value betting for a long time but I am approaching 1600 bets now but I think I might have balls’d it up already?
It’s day 19, 1576 bets made, ROI is -33.94%. I have made it into profit area twice (not much & very short lived) but it’s looking like one way traffic. I know it’s a long game but is there an average number of bets point where one might (in theory) meets the Exp Profit point? That is of course assuming my setting pass muster…. I have changed them a little but not by much, they are:
Stake size 30%
Max stake 2%
Any idea where I might have gone wrong? Have run up a fairly high turnover but the Exp Profit is going one way but the BR is going the other. Paste below
Thank you for adding the Reports section to the Web version .
Hi James! Having a -2% yield when the EV says 3% is not super-unlikely, but this is still a bit concerning. What bookmakers are you using? Be careful using sharps.
It’s an exaggeration. I suggest you set up the following settings because your settings are somewhat unreasonable.
Stake size 30%
Max stake 1%
The maximum bet risk of 2% is too high. Unless you increase the original principal by more than 2-3 times, you should be conservative.
Competitions with too low value have no value to bet on. I think the value should be at least 1.5%. Of course, it can be reduced a little bit.
Another point is that you should increase your minimum odds. You have to win 10 games in a 1.1 game to make up for losing one. I suggest you set a minimum odds of 1.2-1.5.
Same situation here after 1600+ bets. Running at a huge loss
Using a soft book. 30%Kelly, Odd range 1.3-2.5 Max stake 1%
I removed the image with your bets because of privacy (if not from the bookmakers).
Having a -0.18% yield after 1700 bets is well within the variance, and can not be considered a “huge loss”. If you look at the EV you can see you’re in a downswing. I understand your concern however, hopefully you will keep at it! Remember to use kelly stake sizing and update your bankroll every day.
Ok. Thank you about the image, that didn’t cross my mind. Sorry to be the one crying wolf but just seeing my profit swing from positive to negative daily is a bit worrisome. I Expected a slow but steady growth over time. Will stick at it till the long run and see how it goes.
If you really want slow and steady - use surebeting and RebelBetting.
The VB curve might look steady when you zoom out after a year or two.
I’ve improved the article that explains variance and why you shouldn’t panic about downswings. Check it out!
Another example from Twitter. How much the results can differ when betting with an expected value (edge) of 4%: