Results from first 1000 bets on VB


I’m posting the summary of my results after 1000 bets. As you see I’m currently carrying a small loss. Until about 400 bets I was returning close to the EV. Since then I hit a downdraft which bottomed out around 600 bets. I have recovered a bit since then. The report shows up some interesting data. The only sports I have made a profit on are football and American football. However as n=11 for American Football, this does not tell us much. However if I had only bet on football (soccer) I would much closer to the EV. If I had only bet on Asian handicaps I would have exceeded the EV. So the question is - should I change the options to only bet on football or only bet on AH or leave it as it is and wait for a positive fluctuation in variance?


One thing we all need to understand is testing. Bet only on football for a week, then bet only on Asian handicap for another week. Whichever brings the best result wins. With stats to prove yourself you will know works for you.

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You should not draw any conclusion based on just a few weeks of betting, especially if you have placed just a few bets. So, you should not switch the betting strategy too often. Otherwise, you don’t know if it works.

The number of bets required to reach statistical significance is much higher than what most people think intuitively. You will have to place a couple of thousand bets before you will know with a great deal of certainty.