Sanity Check, am I just being impatient?

Hey everyone, been using rebelbetting for +/- 3 months now. Loving the service but I just wanted a sanity check to make sure I am doing everything right and should just stay the course!

Below are my settings and results, does it look like I have things set up properly and I’m just in a weird plateau right now that I need to keep on grinding through?

EDIT: I updated my one screenshot to include yesterday where I lost 15% of my bankroll. :weary::weary:

Considering the chart before that last big drop, I would not be too worried. You have been following the CLV pretty well. Your setups are all fine.
What you’re witnessing is just some negative variance. If your bankroll allows, just stick to the strategy and it should at some point get back up. And beware that this will most likely keep on happening (up and down) as you progress. The CLV is your best indicator to understand if you are doing something wrong (if it goes onto a recurring decreasing trend).

You could try lower the impact of variance by lowering a bit your average stake while doing more volume for a while, if this can help restore some confidence. You could also consider reducing the time to match start to something like 18h to expose yourself to less last minute odds variations (but with the risk of seeing less bets appearing). This is not solving the fact that variance will be there anyways, but it should just help making it a bit less painful.


Thanks, I figured everything was normal just needed a little nudge to reassure me that I’m on the right track! I will probably stick to the default Kelly stake, however I am updating my bankroll size daily to help adjust stake sizes.

Thanks for the encouragement!

Good mindset !
I am myself fighting off a crazy wave of variance right now, but keeping a determined and smart mind, I am confident we will beat it like the other ones before !
Good luck my friend !

Completely on the right track! You have a nice volume (took me 2k bets for any profit at all), solid value/odds and good CLV. Just keep at it and you’ll earn more and more :slight_smile:

Whats your Kelly and max bet size?
I noticed that you have max odds at 2.5 but you average is at 2.19 which is unusual…

Kelly is set to 30% with a max stake of 1.5%. Just curious, what seems odd about the difference between yours seeing between max and average?

Kelly is set to 30% with a max stake of 1.5%. Just curious, what seems odd about the difference between yours seeing between max and average?

In my experience if you have max odds at 2.5 then your average tends to be around 2.05 to 2.10.
Probably nothing to it and you do not have that many bets yet.

It’s been a few months but wanted to update everyone after getting in another 2000-ish bets. Stick with it, good things (and some limitations) will come!


This is great to hear! :slight_smile: Thank you for posting. It’s a good thing you didn’t quit even when you had to manage losing streaks.

For sure! Now if only my run of negative variance in College Basketball would turn around I would be on a rocket ship to the moon! Haha

Really nice to see an updated posting where you are doing great (you were not doing bad before - just normal variance that hit you). Actually not great but in line with the CLV.
Keep it up!

Yeah it’s not the most exciting just steadily following CLV like I have been for the past couple of weeks. But we don’t get bored with profits here! Haha

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Niiiiiiiiiice, great to see you made it with patience and discipline ! Very good results and hopefully more to come :wink:

You’re managing to put through thousands of bets with bookies without them limiting you?

I’ve been limited on three books so far; Rivers, Sugarhouse, and Unibet. All of which have the same odds on everything so I suspect they are tied together somehow.

I’m having a straight up bad time this past week. Down 25% of my bankroll. Things are feeling bleak and I’m definitely finding it hard to carry on, but I will persevere and hope better times are ahead.

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These last 300-ish bets have been much more fun!!