Statistically significant bad results?

MINE WAS ALSO GOING DOEN BUT I MADE KNOW 2500 BETS LAST WEEKEND 600
little bit below ev but 99 points up

Yes, this weekend was a good one. The tendency of going down inverted.
Let´s wait, everything will be fine!

I am saying this below with gratitude, not any bad judgement:

The devs tweaked something in the soft… the bets are “safer” now… that´s why our weekend was better.
Maybe I am wrong, but I noticed a change in the pattern of the bets :slight_smile: Not in the results, in the odds and markets chosen.

That’s interesting…for me also a very bad downswing seems to have turned upwards this past weekend :slight_smile:

I’m not overly happy either with the last couple of days.

I’m 0.5% up on Bet365 for roughly 1500 bets and -2% on AH for almost 1500 again.

@Simon I can see you guys have a way of checking closing lines. Can you check how I’m performing?

Odds over 3.0 will cause large variance. Even if your average odds is 2.0.

No we haven’t. :slight_smile: November was weaker than October, that’s a fact, but the median ROI was still 19.5%.

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We will never know the exact reason, and it might be just normal variance. One important factor is what leagues/tournaments are currently running, and how the bookmakers / individual traders perform on these events.

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Ok, my bad… probably used to good months.
Anyway, it seems a better time is upon us.

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Hi! I read the topic and I have the big downswing too in the last week. I lost 500€ (1/3 of my profit) in 2 weeks and only a few days I have a growth. Below my screen of the last month.
In last two days I add again sport like as basketball, but I lost much money. So i continue only with soccer, hockey and esports.
I’ve never had such a bad time. I hope in a growth in the next day.

hello:) “So i continue only with soccer, hockey and esports” “RC86”.
lets try and think about this for a second… i see alot of people here that change their settings cos they have been doing bad in a spesific sport or in AH or in OU or what ever…
when we are making bets with rebelbetting we are making bets that consistently beat the closingline at the best bookmakers in the world.
so… do u really think, RC86, that the best bookmakers in the world loose money on all sports except soccer, hockey and esport?
the obvious answer is no.
after 2000 bets i was down on OU.
now after 6000 bets, OU is the most profitable market for me.

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good luck btw. hope things turn around for u.

Think the same as Howlowcanugo, Btw do u think the release of VB pro version has something to do with the last bad results? New true odds, a lower quality sharp bookie??

No, the new sharp bookie was released yesterday, and only for the Pro version. So it cannot affect earlier results.

In our internal testing with the new sharp, for many thousands of bets, wad actually achieved a slightly higher yield. We will present this in the future when we have more data.

Well said. We don’t recommend you modify strategies after a few hundred bets (or even 1000).

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I agree with you. At begin of my value bet experience, AH and treeway were in loss, but now at about 4000 bet they are the best market for me. O/U at the begin was the best, not now for example.
But in this moment I have losses with any market and the best sport (with minor losses) are soccer, hockey and esports. Basketball, in these days, made me lose a lot; so to limit my losses i think that remove this sport in this moment and continue with sport with minor losses was the best choice.

Half of my profit’s gone in 14 days.

I just can’t stomach the downswing we’re currently in at the moment.
My subscription is ending today and I’m not renewing unfortunately.

Regardless it was a really good experience with some really nice ups and realistically doubling your bank in 2 months is an amazing achievement.

Community and the support rocks here too!

Have a lovely Christmas and New Year All.

(I’ll still keep an eye on the forum!)

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i am in 90 points away from the ev line
4000 bets done…

I made a post up there saying I am still a “believer” and I mantain it…
But, checking my stats, since 22th october, my profit is… zero.
I am going down, down and down… sometimes, UP, then down again.
So, almost 2 months and I am back to my previous point.
I don´t think it is just “variance”…
So, november and december subs got me into loss, since I had zero profit.
2 months more and maybe I am out… PRO version without any luck in normal version would be a no-no now… I rather buy bitcoins.

i am betting 4000 bets more and i am more down then the 4000 bets before
and the yield id below 2 on softbookies only get limited because a lot of bets
there is no profit at all

is this value betting?

then when use pro sharp bookies now 500 bets -27%
it goes well