Statistically significant bad results?

I’m currently 4000 bets deep with an average stake of £27 an EV of 5.05% and a yield of only 0.78% as you can see below. (Starting bankroll £2500)

It’s getting to the point where I’m just starting to think the math must be drastically off. As you can see when I simulate what I’ve done I’m well below the 95% confidence interval.

My results were actually okay up until the last week or so. I don’t know if something changed (maybe you started to use a new sharp that displays value bets that aren’t actually real value?) I’m really not sure. All I know that is in the past 7 days my results have been awful.

In each of these days I’ve grinded £200-250 of EV per day yet I’ve lost money every single day. I also want to point out the majority of my money has been lost on bet365 which I started using about a week ago also.

I’m not sure what the issue is. All I hope is that it can be resolved if there is something wrong here.

It is really disheartening to spend all day placing bets, trying to put in enough volume to overcome a downswing, only to continue to seemingly lose money everyday.

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I’m pretty much in the same boat with negative yield (not even close : -1% for 5.78% EV) after 2200 bets.

Sorry to hear. I know the feeling. I checked your stats, hope that is OK. Some things to point out:

  • Your only losing bookmaker is Bet365, where you only have 600 bets. Variance hits hardest in the beginning, a losing streak can cause a significant downswing (or upswing). Those bets are not close to reaching statistical significance.

  • Just to give you some hope, average yield on Bet365 since September is 3.19%. The last two weeks have only delivered 2.35% (32.000 bets). So you can say the value on Bet365 have been lower than average the last two weeks. Eurobasket and NCAA stands out where Bet365 seem to have quite solid lines.

  • Remember 95% significance still means you will be fooled by randomness 1 times out of 20.

  • Remember if you would bet randomly on Bet365 you would get -6% yield (their avg margin), not 0.

I understand this does not help you much, but I hope you stick to it. You’re still making money.

Hey thanks for replying and thank you for the constructive feedback.

How do you think I should approach betting on Eurobasket and NCAA now then?
Beforehand was just betting on anything with greater than 2% value.

Should I start betting only on on 5%+ value on those two divisions since you think the 2% edge might in reality be closer to break-even given the sharp lines?

Also is there a way to check what percentage significance my results are once I go over the 95th percentile of statistical significance . Just wondering because obviously the closer I get to 99/100% significance then the less likely it becomes that I’m just in a brutal downswing and the more likely it becomes that the math is wrong in some area or as you said I am perhaps throwing away profitability by betting on some particularly bad lines in a given market.

Hopefully my results help you to continue to improve the accuracy of the product further. I was pretty happy overall and was sitting at a yield of just over 3% until this week when I experienced this sudden drastic downswing. I was at £2900 profit with about £4200 in EV before this downswing, then over the course of a day or two fell under £2000 profit then over the next 5 days lost another £1000+, all over the course of a week. This was why I was curious if anything had changed with how your product finds bets (such as using a new sharp as a a reference point) because it just felt like a doom-switch had been flicked on my account and every bet I started placing became a likely loser.

Once again thanks for the reply and hopefully this downswing turns around.

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Two more notes:

  • The EV we present is the expected value at the time of bet placement. The true odds and with them the value will change up until the match start. We will soon show you closing line EV as well, which is a much better metric.

  • Downswings are unavoidable, even with a 5% edge.

Read more about downswings in our FAQ. I just made some updates based on your comments.

@svh also recently wrote a good post regarding variance.


I understand that downswings are unavoidable, the problem is I haven’t really had any upswings. The gap between my EV and my actual results has been increasing every 1000 bets. The longer this continues the less likely I’m in a prolonged downswing and the more likely the bets I’m placing are just bad value. I hope I’m just experiencing 98th percentile bad luck and things turn around. I will update this thread every 1000 bets to keep you updated.

You shouldn’t look so closely at the EV line, since it shows the value at time of bet placement. It will be changed to show closing line EV in a future release.

Your stats compared to closing line EV doesn’t look as bad, but you have still had some bad luck. I’ve added two extra weeks to your subscription now.

Thanks for keeping us updated!

Thanks for looking further into my results it’s really helpful to me.

I’m guessing the odds moving against me so much is just another way in which I ran bad? I’m just basing this on what you wrote in this thread.

(You might want to increase "Time to match start")

I just want to say that I don’t mind experiencing extra variance as long as I can be confident that it will eventually turn-around in my favour. Bankroll is also not a concern for me.

Do you think I should just carry out betting the way I am? If I’m failing to bet the closing line on Bet365 consistently for example then maybe I should only bet 12 hours before a match with them instead of 48? It’s hard to tell because as you said I don’t have a big sample size with them yet.

One thing that could really help me is if you let me know if my sample on Bet365 is +EV based on the closing line. If I’m consistently beating the closing line on Pinncacle/Betfair then I guess it is just an issue of variance but if not then I can make adjustments to improve my closing line winning %.

You’re beating the closing line 86% of the time :slight_smile:

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Can you pls check if im beating the closing line? For almost 3 month im just losing.

88.3% of all your bets beat the closing line. Your profits have been going sideways the last months, which is always annoying. But on the other hand you greatly overperformed the second half of Sep!
Profits with closing line value:

Yo, having the worst month ever, November ends -200 dollars and now, December, after 67 bets I am already at -318 dollars, so almost everyday losing. Is that normal?, I mean, is not just that 67 bets, since November (838 bets) I am not having any profit. I did not change anything (settings). Really disappointed :frowning:

So my settings are Value 1.5%-100%, Odds 1.5-6.00 but I keep my odd avrg close to 2.00, bet almost everything and <7 hours match time start, all recommended settings.

I have about 16.5k bets. Previous months, good and great results… but…
Around the 3rd week of october there was a problem with the software.
I did not point it here because it only last a couple of days.
The problem was: in the main window, the VALUE COLUMS showed NEGATIVE numbers, but when I opened the bet, it showed positive results. I thought 1 of the 2 numbers were wrong, so I betted anyway.
BUT, since that problem, my graphic curve is only descendind. I am not talking about ups and downs, I am talking about just downs. More than 1 month now, I am seeing a drop of 15% in my profit.
Maybe it is a bad streak, maybe the bookies I used this past month were horrible: sportingbet, 365, bethart, bettson, bethard, leo vegas…
I don´t know, but 15% in one month is kinda weird.

I used to had good results, but at the end of November until now I have nothing but downswings, seems I am not the only one. Maybe the software is facing an issue or something, I can’t believe I am loosing almost everyday, and I have two more months but at this point probably I will lose all of my money hahahahaha.

Yep it seems something happened In october. My curve have just gone downwards ever since. Down 35% since the peak of nice 29.000 sek profit somewhere in early october. Was at 6% yield now 1.9%. Just doesnt feel like i have an edge anymore. Maybe just constantly bad luck. Or maybe 365 is the problem.

The software is broken. Stop loss? hahaha

Thats normal tho, i was at yield - 30% after several hundreds of bets.

Yep, but my last 800 bets were the same :frowning:

I don´t know.
My curve is going down in a pace as the EV curve, smoothly.
Yeah, I got some months pretty boring, ups and downs, but no down-down-down-down…
And today, maybe I made 70 bets… still going down.
I really hope is not a soft problem, just a bad phase.