I will write here some of my thoughts and results about value betting along this rocky path.
A quick introduction about me: I used to play poker professionally and I now have a “real” job so this is just a side hustle to me. However, having experienced some cruel, cruuel, cruuuel swings in poker makes it a lot easier for me to understand the swings involved in gambling. After 200 bets I’m down a 1000€ while the EV shows me about +1000€ and I am still happy to keep on putting some good bets in. (Miss Hanna: How can I see my EV in percentage and bunch of other numbers like I’ve seen others posting. I just see the graphs in “results”?)
I see many people here being obsessed with their settings and tweaking them until they see results but IMO they are just hurting themselves. Not betting on baseball or odds under 1,5 or doing something equally silly, is just silly The “better” results they see after having tweaked the settings are just dumb like aka variance.
What I like to concentrate is the following:
- make a lot of bets
- try to avoid having your bet amounts limited
At the moment number 2 is still a priority to me. I try to optimize it with following things:
2.1 don’t bet on obscure games - no bets on Mongolian 2st division 1st half result AH +0.75 etc
2.2 Round your bets- I currently round them to the nearest 25€
2.3 fool around with other types of gambling on the sites. Because I still occasionally play poker that’s a natural thing for me, but I have also played some slots, or just made 10€ combo bets like the regular fish (casual player) would.
Most of my bets are on Bwin, Unibet (and PAF) but bet365 and NordicBet (especially for esports) are some of my favorites. William Hill looks good, but I am still in their retarded KYC process where 1. I sent them the documents 2. I sent a selfie with more documents 3. I now have to send a selfie with even more documents. I hope I will clean those ****ers ComeOn seems quite fast on changing their odds.
min value 2%
min odds 1.1, max odds 99
time to start 120h
Those of you who don’t bet on such small odds I would like to ask this: do you think you know how Kelly works? Its way better to get x% of value on 1.2 compared to the same x% on 5.0 because you get to put in such a big portion of your bankroll.