superpetter goes to value town

Went up a grand, came down some more.

Sites added:
SBO: a horrible user interface and I havent been able to find a search on their desktop, but at least there’s one on mobile. Took some time to get used to how they display their bets but its gettings better. Quick on changing their odds. Feels like they are more like an exchange than a traditional bookmaker…

Boylesport: I only deposited the minimum 5€ to see if they would immediately give me the same treatment as WH but they didnt. (I am very suspicious about the british bookmakers now) I will soon deposit some more and then quite soon try to do a withdrawal because the WH process made me insane. Past tense because they can keep their monies for all I care. I wont deal with them anymore.

Bethard has been very fast on changing their odds but even though ComeOn also uses the same odds service they on the other hand are a bit slower and i’ve been able to put some good bets in.

I have a trip coming up and my subscription is about to end as well so I will probably return to value betting later with another service which has coolbet. And to also compare which service gives me the best bang for my euros. (and I really dont mean the results)

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500 bets down and results have been better as I’m only down 1100€ ATM. In other words in less than 100 bets I won 1100€.

I took a few days off while travelling which was probably good in many ways. Also I was finally able to put in a max bet of 500€ in a KHL match (1.21 odds) and another one in tennis for 425€ (odds 1.9 and 14.1% value!) both of which were successful.

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IN THE BLACK! (after 600 settled bets)
Not being down feels like a huge win and I’ve won about 35 avg sized bets in 200 or 300 bets which just comes to show how volatile betting is.

Especially now that more and more major leagues are back I have been able to put in some bigger bets which is always nice. Im a bit afraid that I am putting in too much volume on my best bookmakers (bet365, PAF/Unibet, Nordicbet) and I should find some new ones as it would be nice to split some of the action with the same odds service to 2-3 different bookies.

Hopefully next week I will finally get my new office room set up with a nice sized monitor which will make betting much more comfortable compared to just the laptop or the mobile.

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The UK came out with some credit card law changes in April from what I understand. The way you get around this is by: uploading from your credit card to Neteller and then transferring the money to Skrill (or vice versa), then you can use the money for gambling. Even in PayPal, I am assuming that if you upload money to paypal, gift it to another account, you get around the gambling requirement (which means that you would need a Neteller and Skrill account).

How is it going? Do u still have a lot of variance??
And do u use Sharp bookies?

1000 bets done about 2 weeks ago!

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General stuff:

  • I was effectively blocked from NordicBet/Betsson. I didn’t realize that they were owned by the same mega corp and I was, for a while, happily betting on both sites, perhaps even with the same email address, to get around the bet size limits. meh.
    -I added mrgreen.com alongside with PAF and Unibet to place bigger bets on the odds provider Kambi’s odds. (other options for later are (32)redbet, 888 and leovegas)
    -I realized that I place most of my bets with my mobile while having coffee or what not, which might help me from getting banned so easily.
    -I am trying to place in more combo bets on different sites to look more like a random bettor. Especially if they have nice combo offers. Playing some slots also should help a bit.
    -I have the exact same betting limits on PAF and mrgreen now so I am fooling around with the slots and combo bets on PAF to see if they are helpful in increasing the betting limits vs mrgreen.
    -I have placed a few bets with Coolbet and the Finnish state monopoly Veikkaus which is a bit slow because most of the time its a miss. I am still waiting for my new monitor which should come any day now which will give me lots of extra pixels for webpages to be open and ready for searching!

Below is a pic of 1204 settled bets. I was actually up to about 4500€ at one point (graph is day by day), so the swings are quite something. I have decided not to increase my bet size for now because I also need new sites and dont want to withdraw any more money from other sources.

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Yeah lots of variance as you can see from the screen shots. And I’ve only used the sharps lately to bet on Biden.

Congrats on great results Petter. Good thing you stuck around despite the initial downswing :smiley:

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I’ve been breaking even (with some nice swings) for 2 months / 1000 bets now. Sucks but what can I do. Start tweaking the settings to find the “optimal settings” for different sports, odds range, and value? Obviously not, I will just skip the bets that have been getting me banned too early (small leagues), and keep on putting the bets in.

I have been banned from quite a few sites and now mostly bet my bets on PAF, Comeon/Bethard, Novibet (with some betsize limitations) and Coolbet. I finally got my Sportmarket account going but have only managed to make a couple of small bets. After 2 days it looks quite clear that the lines for smaller events move way too fast, and that it’s not worth it to try to place bets on nothing but the biggest games.

Is there a way to get directly to the match on Sportmarket? Now the link just takes me to to their frontpage.

Once I got my monies from Betfair I will add quite a few bookies mentioned here List of Clone Bookies Now I just gotta hope that I don’t go on any kind of a downswing because I don’t have a lot of cash laying around.

Patience Patience

10k€!

No, I haven’t changed any settings.

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You still with soft bookies only, or do you use sharks now too?

Can u take a screenshot of ur sports/markets settings? How bout Kelly %?

I used Pinnacle for a while but after I read that users are actually down there I stopped. I haven’t been able to place that many bets on sportmarket which I think would be ok.

Mostly just stick to the major leagues, place fewer bets but been increasing my betsizes. Also makes it more worth my while.

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I don’t want to share my settings because they don’t really matter. It’s not like there is some ultimate setting combo that will lead us all to riches. Just place a lot of bets and the results will come.

Also the Kelly % is very personal. I am basically using my current settings (BR 18k Kelly 30%) to get bets that are of good size to me. I could as well be using BR 10k Kelly 55% or smth. I have a lot of experience with swings in the stock market and with poker so I don’t get fooled by randomness so easily, although it does also get to me.

Well some pointers about settings I do want to make. Please correct if I’m wrong.

  • The software doesn’t adjust to O/U bias so bets on under have better EV than those of over, on average, so adjust your bet sizes accordingly. I personally don’t even bet overs with EV of 2%
  • The American version of favourite/underdog bias is to bet too much on big favourite wins, hence making AH bets on the underdogs more favourable. As an example I wanted to clear a bonus on ComeOne but they had already limited my betsizes quite a bit so I just bet on NBA (small margins) underdogs (+10, +15,5 etc) blindly maybe just losing 1-1.5% per bet in EV
  • I recommend reading some books about randomness. Two come to mind right away: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (The language is quite difficult) and The Signal and the Noise by Nate “the 538 guy” Silver.
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  • Value: I use min 2% which gives some room for error for the software and helps keep the variance not-bat-shit-crazy.

  • Odds: I use 1.1 - 4.0. There is a clear bias towards the higher odds thus the bookmakers make up for it by having the lower odds higher than they ought to be. (Combine this with stupid sounding U5.5 goals for football and you’ve found my favourite bets!) Although the software does account for the favourite/underdog bias Im not sure if bettings on odds higher than that is worth the variance. I might be missing out on some value here, though.

  • Time to start: As far as I know longer time increases variance, and does NOT change the EV (much). I have the setting quite low now because of bankroll issues as I’ve been placing some very large bets on those aforementioned U5.5 and alike and don’t want to run out of money on some site for too long.

Thanks for the honest opinion! But i am still curious… Can u show ur sports/markets setting as i mentioned u were saying something about the “wierd”?

Hi, how long before match start place your bets? You look to be as near is possibl, or it doesn’t matter.

I have been betting and testing basketball odds for long time and what i figured out after a lot of
losses is that most value odds are between 1.30 - 2.80. Bigger odds are just pure luck and they are confirmed on very rare occasions. I would close even more that gab between 1.40 - 2.30.
If you ever check the basketball market you will see that most of odds change rapidly the day that event will begin.
So i am beginner on value betting i changed settings based on my betting knowledge and after a few days these are my results. My starting bankroll is 500$ so i test things and also i do around 40-45 bets daily. I will update weekly my results and i would like to hear your opinions.

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