We noticed a drop in yield the last week (21-27 nov). Since we haven’t changed anything on our end, the hypothesis is that it’s a “world cup effect”.
Note: The effect seems to be gone now and yield is back to normal, but we’ll keep monitoring.
We’ve seen similar weird stuff happening when there is a significant shift in the betting calendar, like when the leagues end (or just started) and when there’s a large tournament. Also during Covid the numbers were all over the place.
One theory is that when the odds traders at the sharps have limited information and time, they make educated guesses and mistakes. Like when they need to switch over their organization to monitor the world cup, which takes up a significant amount of their revenue for a short time.
What do you think? Is this a reasonable theory, or it just variance? It was the worst week yield-wise since May this year.
This effect is also seen when excluding Bet365, and excluding football.
Note: The effect seems to be gone now and yield is back to normal, but we’ll keep monitoring.
In the meantime, you could try to increase the minimum value percentage for some time.
