The descent continues... (1900 bets)

These are the results after about 2 months 2 almost 2000 bets. I keep losing, I hope at least to get the free month of “guaranteed” profit.


Ouch… That looks pretty bad but you do not have a significant number of bets yet and the CLV is great.
My last six weeks with B365 has been pretty much flat - with positive CLV but hardly any profit.
RB have always honored their profit guarantee so check with them for your additional free month.
Just curious - what is your staking strategy and bankroll?

I don’t think the number of bets is the problem. It’s a bad period. Anyway, these are my settings

Clv is good so you will end up in profit eventually

Most members, including me, turn of AFOB.
I am running with max stake of 4.5% currently - but with fractional Kelly at 25%.
My profit has finally take off again. Had a very slow month earlier though.

4.5% is not very high? How do you place so many bets?

Most members have max stake around 2% so I consider my max stake to be pretty high.
What do you mean how I manage to place so many bets? If you have access to b365 then there are plenty of bets.

because with a maximum stake of 4% with 25 bets you have finished your bankroll

Do you know how fractional Kelly works?
With my max stake at 4% I usually end up having the bankroll in play with about 80 to 110 bets.

It seems strange to me because if you bet on low odds and with a lot of value then it is easy to always bet 4% and finish your bankroll quickly

That is okay since - and as you wrote - that value is high, odds low, so the chances to win are high. In reality the bets are a mixture of low/high value and low/high/odds so in reality it is rare that you reach the max % threshold.

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18 posts were split to a new topic: Results betting on sharps