These are the results after about 2 months 2 almost 2000 bets. I keep losing, I hope at least to get the free month of “guaranteed” profit.
Ouch… That looks pretty bad but you do not have a significant number of bets yet and the CLV is great.
My last six weeks with B365 has been pretty much flat - with positive CLV but hardly any profit.
RB have always honored their profit guarantee so check with them for your additional free month.
Just curious - what is your staking strategy and bankroll?
Clv is good so you will end up in profit eventually
Most members, including me, turn of AFOB.
I am running with max stake of 4.5% currently - but with fractional Kelly at 25%.
My profit has finally take off again. Had a very slow month earlier though.
4.5% is not very high? How do you place so many bets?
Most members have max stake around 2% so I consider my max stake to be pretty high.
What do you mean how I manage to place so many bets? If you have access to b365 then there are plenty of bets.
because with a maximum stake of 4% with 25 bets you have finished your bankroll
Do you know how fractional Kelly works?
With my max stake at 4% I usually end up having the bankroll in play with about 80 to 110 bets.
It seems strange to me because if you bet on low odds and with a lot of value then it is easy to always bet 4% and finish your bankroll quickly
That is okay since - and as you wrote - that value is high, odds low, so the chances to win are high. In reality the bets are a mixture of low/high value and low/high/odds so in reality it is rare that you reach the max % threshold.
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Send screenshot of your clv, I’m also honestly very surprised how you have gotten that many bets on just 15 days while having a min EV% of 4.8 that is just unreal
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I am also surprised that you get so many beys on sharp bookmakers in 15 days. Many bettors struggle to place that many bets in soft bookmakers in a month…
You also write that in 90% of the time the odds have moved. If they move as much as in your example then they are not a value bet anymore.
@CRISTIANJ Please provide the CLV screenshot.
Obligatory reminder about betting on sharp bookmakers.
Also, if odds have moved, don’t place the bet - the value is likely gone.
“Making a profit value betting on sharp bookmakers and exchanges is more difficult than using only soft bookmakers.”
@CRISTIANJ have you tracked the bets on Rebel as well? In the reports there you can see the clv of each bookmaker which would be very useful to know
yea but i place all bets as find it in the first 4-5 days , in tracker is not correct because there it show me 223 profit but for real have -418 so is not what i though it is . Thank you anyway , and still do not know why cost 200 euro for sharp bookmakers
A screenshot is pretty much useless.