I’m taking a little break.
maybe bet365 has become sharp. I HAVEN’T SEEN THIS MUCH NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 2 YEARS I’VE BEEN HERE. starting from the end of December until today, I lost more or less half of my credit.
I understand the variances very well, don’t try to explain them to me, because I probably know them better than you.
this is unimaginable.
I am in the same boat as you. I have never seen something like this.
I placed a lot more bets, only those with the highest value, and i’m still going down.
I’m talking about bet365, maybe it is sharper now.
The CLV went up in the last weeks, but the profit is still going down or staying flat at best. If it’s variance, how long can it be before it goes up again?
I’ll wait another month, if the things do not change i’m out.
It’s not the number of bets, because I go over 2000 bets a month, in past months I had days to not place bets because the profit would go too high. The last days I’m grinding more than I’ve ever done, still losing a lot.
I am fairly new to value betting. The first months were profitable. In some cases i was able to double my initial investment in a single month since i place a big number of bets. This month i am stable with no profit at all. Are you confident that it is not a case of an unlucky month? Do you really think that bet365 has become sharper? In this case, considering that the pricing for the rebelbet product has gone up, do you suggest that i should stop valuebetting altogether?
No bet365 hasn’t become sharper, we are able to find edges on softs because of this one thing “they are slow to change their odds and adjust it manually”. On the sharps, money wagered controls the odds hence why it’s almost impossible to get bets down without a software or something. As much as you don’t wanna hear this phrase “it’s variance” i have to still say it.
One of the most important metrics, the CLV, has significant positive development. That means we are placing positive value bets.
At the same time, it s***, that the actual profit is not following the curve this month.
This reminds me of one of the posts that Pop (@pop ) did a while ago about the importance of psychological detachment.
Has anyone a review about trademate? As i saw in trial, they have an incredibile volum
I have tried them and they work. There are pros and cons with both TMS and RB. With RBs ability now to download the users betting data they have stepped up a notch. Also the promotional videos on YT that promotes TMS, and the incredible profit (the founder had ROI over 12 months of over 3.6% on Asians) potential is not provided by the software.
I also found the RB severs to be a tad faster but other users claim the opposite.
A feature that is lacking is the inability to turn off AFOB.
I was interested to see that the founder doesnt appear to use his own software now, he s gone into property :)…and in one of the YT videos he seems to struggle to answer some questions about Value Betting . I have doubts about the massive claims , because as we all find out sooner or later you are gubbed.
It’s not like he’s gone into property full time, he has investments there and in some other ventures. He didn’t achieve his 10k-1M on a softbook, it was on the sharps and you must’ve known they don’t gub there. @totrashbin01 he didn’t say his clv was ever 30%, his yield on there averaged 3%+ over a sample of 20k+ bets, he wasn’t using the software (TMS) to bet at that time so he didn’t have a way of measuring and keeping track of clv, the only metrics he had where his profits, yield and turnover. Also, he wasn’t using kelly staking, he was staking flat. He’s a pro at what he does, also you don’t expect him to just giveaway an edge that took him time to perfect when he’s only just made 1M from it.
30% yield? C’mon, who’s dumb enough to say they have a 30% yield on Asians? Not people smart enough to build a software that good.
“A comparison we like to use for Trademate Pro is to compare it to a poker HUD. It can help you to make better decisions and to find the valuable positions. But just because you are playing with a HUD you are not going to play poker like Phil Ivey, nor are you
going to bet like Jonas if you are using Trademate Pro”.
Betting on sharps is much more complex than betting on softs, we have to understand this. I know it isn’t easy explaining this to a community where 95% bet on softs, it’s way more complicated than that on sharps, if you’re looking to depend solely on a software for your betting on sharps then i will advise you to think hard, the fact this approach worked on softs doesn’t mean it’s gonna work on sharps. You rarely even see anyone on here promoting betting on sharps, even companies making this software such as rebel/tm put out warnings that one should stay clear of sharps if they don’t know the nitty gritty. I(personally) don’t expect joonas to spoon feed me an edge that he “spent the time necessary to learn
his craft and to find edges in the market”
Spoon-fed? We clearly have different expectations on what a custom +EV software subscription should provide.
In any case. This is not the tread for this discussion.
thanks guys for this valuable discussion 
I have been trying it for some time, in December there was an extraordinary progress, due to the volume. some amateur leagues are scanned there and what I like are the overs/unders in the first half of basketball. (which are always greater than 2)
Meanwhile, I made a subscription to RB that I left to my two friends, to learn and share the profits :))) For them, it is simpler here in RB, because they are beginners. (Their accounts don’t last that long, but I personally have some good ones that I had some losses in the world cup. I only play at bet365.
I have worked with local companies before, but a few years ago it was a child’s play, as I found the valubets more complicated, even very scary. You can make sure bets within the same company, they were so amateur. But that was a few years ago.
I like watching Jonas and his protegee ( Alex) on their You Tube vids. It is clear he has done very well for himself…but in my opinion he is setting some gullible people up for a fall if they think they will achieve out of it anything like as much as he has. If you a truly the Robin Hood ( taking from the rich to give back some to the poor) as per his punchline …then you would want to support your followers/subscribers to achieve their maximum . For example, McDonalds sell franchises and support franchisees to the max, as they know that everyone will be better off…so best practices are shared, not kept a secret by the CEO. I dont care that he has had to work to achieve success, so does mostly everyone !
Alex 's TM journey was an interesting one…but he was called out for showing profits ( omitting that he was not paying for a monthly subscription) …but nevertheless he did show a profit . Skeptics will wonder if he actually did use his own bankroll …because betting at odds of 4.0 frequently would either sky rocket or nose dive profits and burn modest starting Bankrolls.
In summary RB/BB and TM are all essentially pedalling the same product and 3 exist because they cater for slightly differing needs.
Yes i totally agree with this, i understand your view and point now. However, I’m contended with what rebel and TM are offering, i won’t go into betting on sharps and rely solely on software though, the reason I don’t have a problem with joonas not sharing his edge is because i wouldn’t also. I will share with close friends etc but not the world. This’s why I’m not mad about joonas not sharing his edge. What they currently offer is the same thing competitors are offering so i see no reason for them to do away with their edge now, maybe in the future that will be nice.
About Alex, he’s the marketing director and part of the team so i don’t expect him to pay a sub fee, we’re just seeing from the surface, maybe he’s actually paying from his salary or work hours, we simply won’t and will never know if you/I don’t ask. Once again, he’s part of the team and him not paying is no biggie and doesn’t pass off as anything shady or out of the ordinary.
And then betting on 4 odds, if you have an edge you can get away with betting on any odds ranges, your/my risk adversity is different from theirs, i think Emilovich or a member here bets on high odd ranges and are doing fine, it’s just maths. People jump on whichever settings they see working not factoring risk adversity/timezone/bankroll etc. When you have enough data and information and are very risk adverse, your perception of betting on high odds ranges will change, i know they work but because I’m not risk adverse, i stick to 2.8/2.9. I know someone who bets on 100 odds using a horse racing program they built for spotting value and are doing just fine, it’s all about risk adversity and nothing out of the ordinary.
Yes my friend, I don’t think $400 for TM pro is worth it in any case or good value for money because rebels cost $200 with surebetting/+ev so rebel is overall better value for money when it comes to Betting on sharps. Both softwares are doing more than enough already hence my reason for not expecting anyone to share any edge they worked on. Take Mercedes for example, they manufacture road cars and f1 cars, does buying a road car make you entitled to sitting in their f1 car? No, maybe if you ask politely then yes. No matter the amount you pay, you’re just gonna get your road car and off you go because other competitors don’t offer any add-ons like that so they feel they aren’t obligated to offer any add ons or stuff like that to you. Same goes for you asking them for their f1 cars blueprint, it will never be given to you because they took time to manufacture and come up with it. You want a modern f1 car( superior edge on sharps)? Develop one yourself if you aren’t ok with the speed those other sport cars/old f1 cars reach(softwares for betting on sharps). So this my friend is what I’m trying to explain. I hope y’all understand and don’t take anything i say here personal.
I think the 400 eu payment is only for beginners. gives you more statistics, the opportunity to talk to
videos with leaders, for advice and others like these.
the 120 payment (which does not change anything as far as the bookmakers are concerned) is the payment that I have to make who knows how this thing works. this is my opinion.