This could increase returns by 5%

[Moretus_Capital]

I know this has been discussed before but I never seen a good response from the RB owners on this topic.

We need to see the closing line for each bet but, but more importantly we need to see the current edge as the market is “Dynamic” & the kelly criterion is been used for staking with almost everyone.

Let me explain you why, a bet comes in at 10% edge odds 2.00 → You stake 1.5% of your total bankroll on this bet because it has a high edge. (24h before the game starts)

1 hour later your 10% edge totally melts away because the underlying benchmark (sharp pricing) has totally swung the other way. You now face exposure on something that had 10%+ EV to -10% negative EV. Which means you are overly exposed on something that you definitely don’t want any exposure on in that senario.

Seeing some of the edge dissapear can be normal because of the natural arbitrage opportunity that will come along (Pinnacle will get smashed on the other side and therefore naturally adjust their pricing).

But then this is likely to widen again if the original “Edge” is deemed a true “edge”

Bookmakers like Bet365 allow you to cash out your placed bets at Par(Original Amount Placed) for quite sometime, which will give you to opportunity to take risk of the table at 0 cost!

You could stake in tranches on a single game and reduce some of the exposure
You could take the bet of completely
You could hedge the bet at a small loss 2-3% at a sharp bookmaker or exch…

Seeing current edge will simply allow you to make better risk management decisions and this will enhance returns drastically in the future.

I have a subscription under my other email adres and we had some amazing results with Rebelbetting almost 9% yield over 4500 bets. But this was more luck than skill and my research shows that if you can get your money in with kelly criterion on True edges you will dramatically enhance your returns.

So for now the service is simply not worth 170 euro’s in my view, because the system does not allow you to manage your exposure and therefore actually takes potential extra returns away from you.

There is also a narrative with value betting providers to guide you on keeping your account running as long as possible. This is of course total Bullshit as well, Valuebetting providers are biased in sharing those “tips” because they want you to stay as long as possible betting, with a small profit rather than large because the monthly fee.

What really should be thought is how to enhance returns, and of course you don’t want to burn an account immediately. But you actually want to make the largest profit possible in the shortest amount of time because you have subscription costs and time you invest in doing Valuebetting.

I hope this gives you guys some food for thought and a response would be welcomed.

[totrashbin01]

@Moretus_Capital

What really should be thought is how to enhance returns, and of course you don’t want to burn an account immediately. But you actually want to make the largest profit possible in the shortest amount of time because you have subscription costs and time you invest in doing Valuebetting.

I probably would not use the word BS but otherwise I agree completely on the quote.
Regarding the question if the service is worth its money… I started with a bankroll of l1.8k€ and subscription on Pro (first time subscriber gave additional two weeks for free). So total was 2k “investment”.
One month later I was at a slight negative which gave me a month for free.
Three months later (I hit those bookies hard; like you said, why drag out on it…) I was finally limited at b3t365. I was at over 140k€ profit (plus some profit that does not show up, like bonuses…). So IMHO it was clearly worth it.

Long-term solution should be to improve the service to find VBs on exchanges and bookies that does not limit you. Gnoming accounts (which is questionable legally) only takes you so far.
Thank you Moretus_Capital for raising the topic.

[Lm10]

Rebel is a great software if not one of the best, what you’re saying makes total sense, I’m currently subscribed to a rival software “TradeMate” and they have this feature, you can see the closing edge of each individual bet you place, you can also see the livescores as events take place thus granting you the ability to also see live prematch odds move up until kickoff, now don’t get me wrong this guys have their downsides like higher sub cos, and the also miss out on a few bookies rebel offers(like about 4-10 bookies less) but other than that, everything cool for me, my main reason for picking TradeMate over rebel is the fact that rebels starter for 79 is capped at 7% edges and that’s a bummer for me, TM on the other hand offers everything excluding sharps for 120(300/quarter) so if you’re willing to spare the extra 20-30 for more features and higher % then i would say go for it. I’m still holding on to rebel because the full package cost 179 whereas TradeMates cost 400 so that when I’m restricted on the softs i would then move here subscribe to the premium for access to sharps. I respect rebels decision to just keep everything simple for her users but some of us want more, some of us want value for money you know!