Thoughts on Inplay Valubetting

Hello Friends, please what are your thoughts on Inplay valubetting? I’ve heard the yield is around 8% and obviously very very slow to get accounts gubbed, anyways, share your thoughts below

@totrashbin01 @jjgold @BetNinja @Simon @emilovich @03andu @Hajdeneser @Hanna

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Hey Lm10, thanks for opening an interesting discusison ! do I understand correctly that you are referring to Live Betting ?
If yes, it’s a question I asked myself several times. I have the impression they take extra margin during live games, thus you start with even lower odds (I guess to compensate for the extra risk and volatility of live betting). So if you are to find value bets, you need to make sure that you capture the correct reference “closing” lines considering that extra margin (that is if there is an extra margin, I am not 100% sure). Which then opens the question: how do you determine a reference “closing” line since it’s never really closing in a live bet (except if you bet at half time) ?

I also have the impression you should do it only if you watch the game itself to capture all the information that are displayed (and then reflected in the odds). Otherwise you may be missing some important game changer events. So this may also require extra knowledge of specific sports (as opposed to traditional value bet where you only look for values, regardless of your sport knowledge).

Just some open thoughts as I could never really find some good theoretical content around it. I am curious to hear from others on that one !

Thanks for your great and insightful reply, the approach i might take on live valubetting is the using a software approach and not my knowledge on a particular sport, the fact that a metric such as CLV isn’t available in live valubetting is what scares me the most, anyways I’m looking forward to everyones view on this as that will help me make a well informed decision on wether to proceed or…

Indeed, having no reference metric is problematic to me. Especially if they indeed all cut their odds with extra margin. Then even if you beat the market, you could still be with a negative value.

I think at the start I did try value betting on live betting a bit with oddsjam, didn’t think it was worth it. Requires too much focus and I think is riskier :pinched_fingers:

Thanks for the feedback

Thank you for marking in an interesting topic. The bookmakers have more revenues in this segment and therefore this segment naturally should have more liquidity and less limitations. Bet365 have had more than 75% of it’s revenue from the live segment, and in the shops it is also observed that the punters bet mostly live.

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This just speaks volume on how profitable in play valubetting can be which leaves the question how can one be profitable at it? Once again thank you to everybody who has contributed so far, looking forward to more views and perspective on this matter

I think a good clue would be Pinnacle and its closing lines.

How so as closing line doesn’t apply to in play valubetting, i think if I’m even gonna start i might just do halftime Inplay valubetting and not real time live

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Thx very insightful !