Hi bettors,
After a succesfull ride with surebetting (made over 4 000$ in profit) I would like to step into the ring of value betting. Actually, I already did but the results are far from great.
I had done my research and I thought I was ready but I was not
The biggest problem for me is the variance and I would love to know your tips how to decrease it - especially in the beginning.
If my settings are odds from 1,00-2,00 and over value from 5-10% then after what amount of bets it is good to evaluate the strategy? When should I expect to be in profit if the strategy is working?
If I change my settings to odds 1,00-2,50 and over value from 3-10% then how many bets?
I was in exactly the same shoes as you. So I went through the Community posts, made a few notes and designed a strategy which has done exactly what I was looking for - keeping the variance at the manageable level while making an adequate CLV profit. So far, my maximum variance has been at about +/- 10% from CLV.
What has worked for me:
Betting on pretty much everything except some questionable low tier games, esports and baseball (you can get different opinions here though).
Making as many bets as I can while making sure not betting twice on the same game. At the end, it’s all about diversification and turnover.
Keeping Kelly at 30%, max size at 1.5%, odds 1.4-2.8, value at around and above 4%.
Bearing in mind that the value volatility increases with the time to the game start. So you want to target higher value for the games further in the future.
The default settings are already quite well tuned for most users.
If you have a small bankroll, the only setting I would change is increasing minimum value to 4%, or even 5% as long as you can turnover a good volume of bets every day.
