Tips for beginning - lowering the variance

Hi bettors,
After a succesfull ride with surebetting (made over 4 000$ in profit) I would like to step into the ring of value betting. Actually, I already did but the results are far from great.

I had done my research and I thought I was ready but I was not :smiley:

The biggest problem for me is the variance and I would love to know your tips how to decrease it - especially in the beginning.

If my settings are odds from 1,00-2,00 and over value from 5-10% then after what amount of bets it is good to evaluate the strategy? When should I expect to be in profit if the strategy is working?

If I change my settings to odds 1,00-2,50 and over value from 3-10% then how many bets?

Thank you for your time and input!

I was in exactly the same shoes as you. So I went through the Community posts, made a few notes and designed a strategy which has done exactly what I was looking for - keeping the variance at the manageable level while making an adequate CLV profit. So far, my maximum variance has been at about +/- 10% from CLV.

What has worked for me:

  1. Betting on pretty much everything except some questionable low tier games, esports and baseball (you can get different opinions here though).
  2. Making as many bets as I can while making sure not betting twice on the same game. At the end, it’s all about diversification and turnover.
  3. Keeping Kelly at 30%, max size at 1.5%, odds 1.4-2.8, value at around and above 4%.
  4. Bearing in mind that the value volatility increases with the time to the game start. So you want to target higher value for the games further in the future.
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Hi and welcome to Rebelbetting!

I suggest you read this:

The default settings are already quite well tuned for most users.
If you have a small bankroll, the only setting I would change is increasing minimum value to 4%, or even 5% as long as you can turnover a good volume of bets every day.

Good luck!

Thank you for your time. I will definitely take your advice.

Great, Thank you!