Here are some interesting statistics for you value bettors. These are the top 5 bookmakers with the best average yield. The data is statistically significant.
Bookmaker
Yield
EV
Average odds
William Hill
8,0%
5,0%
2,06
Expekt
6,4%
3,6%
2,24
BetClic
5,0%
3,3%
1,95
BWin
3,7%
3,8%
2,00
Bet365
3,5%
4,0%
2,20
More statistics will be published in the coming weeks and months.
Could you please give us a status update with regards to the long-term Yield % for the soft and sharp bookmakers? Could you break it down to sport categories?
I explain at the bottom why it is important to know.
I am happy to share my statistics with the community:
Overall monthly result so far (yield):
Bet365: 172%
10Bet: -168%
I am very concerned about 10Bet because in Basketball and Hockey it generates negative profit for the second month in a row. If the long-term yield of these is a negative value and it resonates with my statistics then I wouldn’t invest more money into it. Things like this fundamentally determines our profitability and it would be a huge help if you could share more information about the yield based on the past 6-12 months or all time.
I would also be interested in Unibet and SBO data, because Unibet offers lots of bets and it is a soft bookmaker and SBO is sharp however it’s yield looks very attractive to me but it is not representative.
The numbers you’re posting are not statistically significant I’m afraid. For instance, you mentioned that on 10bet you are concerned about basketball and hockey because you’re in negative profit two months in a row. As far as I can see, you have placed less than 150 bets on basketball and hockey together in total on 10bet. Which is way to little to draw any conclusions at all.
When looking at more than 10,000 bets for each sport, the yield for 10bet is
2.2% for hockey
5.1% for basketball
This is when looking at bets with a minimum EV at placement of 3%.
Thanks Bjorn. I know that in long-term yield is different and there is no guarantee that the next 10k bets on 10Bet Hockey/Basketball will result in 5% yield (please correct me if I am wrong). I placed around 110 bets on Hockey and Basketball from this bookmaker because that was all showed by the software. If it had shown 1000 bets I would have placed all. It is not fortunate because it would take a few years to collect 10k bets from 10Bet for Basketball and 10k for Hockey respectively to validate the historical yield.
On the other hand I have 500 bets from Bet365 for Hockey and Basketball within the same time frame. I will definitely able to draw strong conclusions from Bet365 data sooner, because I can collect a representative amount of bets in a reasonable time frame.
All I want to say is that I am not sure I should wait several months to see how the yield of 10Bet will improve because of the low number of bets. I would rather go for another bookmakers where I can pick up hundreds of bets within a month or two. This is a totally my personal decision with its pros and contras
I need your guidance in choosing the right bookmakers and I am interested in Unibet and SBO. Unibet is a soft one and some other community members confirmed a high number of daily bets from this bookmaker. However SBO is sharp and in February I got lots of bets from this bookmaker with a promising yield (I know it is not representative…). I would appreciate if you shared the Unibet and SBO yield with us for each sport.
It would be great if someone from the developers could reflect to my query and thoughts I made several days ago. If sharing the information is not the right thing for some reason then please let us know.