Hello community
I’m kinda new here (4 days). I am testing the valuebet software atm. ( 200e test bankroll | 180 bets with 6.12% yield and 4.26% ev . Current br: 220e +10%.) Anyways i am going to post my weekly result on the right topic section when time arrives.
I am making this topic in order to express my thoughts about 3.00 - 5.00 odds bets. I ve noticed most of the members of this community are afraid of those odds and miss every value on them in order to maintain the variance as low as possible. However i believe that ,since value given is correct , we should bet on those specific odds .
Everyone would happily bet 10€ (1%br) on a 2.00 odds game with 5% value. Winning more than 50% of those bets while getting paid 2.00 is amazing. I suggest placing a smaller bet (max0.5% br) on a 4.00 odds game also . It is the same thing isnt it? you are winning slightly more than 25% while getting paid 4.00 (4.00= 25%) while minimizing exposure in variance.
Please correct me if i am wrong. I just believe that since a value exists we should exploit that edge no matter what.
Ps. No native english speaker , sorry for any mistakes.
Its right but if you are not prepared, a very deep lose streak is consuming our soul
By the way. If you bet using kelly, long odds bet using smaller stakes, EV is counted from your stakes, not your winning
So the same 5% ev, from 2.0 bet and 5.0 bet is different because we are using kelly
You can do max stake on 2.0 bet while you might only use 25% of your stake on that bet, which depends on personal kelly staking settings
I am aware that value lies in our stakes and not the odds payout. I m not talking about huge profits because of the odds . I am talking about the value that we must take advantage of.
4.0 odds mean 25% of that event to be occurred. So a 0.25% of bankroll would be nice. I know we profit less but we still profit .
As for the losing streak . Imagine a 10 games losing streak on 2.0 odds (50% probability) while betting 1% . We are down 10% of bankroll . 20 games losing streak on 4.0 odds (25% probability) with 0.25% bets is a 10% of br down also .
We expect same variance with this strategy while also not skipping the “high” odds value bets.
After 1000 of those bets we expect a turnover of 250% of bankroll. Not too much but we still expect some profit out of that while we have same exposure on variance using 1/4 of our max bet.
I personally suggest 3.01-3.6 (0.5% bet)
3.61-5 (0.25% bet)
Ps. This is for disciplined investors that are not result orientated but wait patiently for the long run profit
yes. its true
i personally bet 1.3- 5 and left the staking using 30% kelly which i have never interfere the stake per bet unless i got limited and need to bet lower stakes.
Guys remember, we want a low divergence from the EV as possible. So pick low odds -I recommend at max 3.0 and max 25% kelly. That way Kelly will auto adjust the bet according the odds and the % value, dont worry. So as soon as it gets stable just increase your bankroll. High variation is not good, we need something as stable as it can be so very high risk settings shall be avoided. it is an investment, slow and steady is always the best, if someone wants quick money well …this is not how those things work…