Two Weeks of Value Betting (800+ Bets, UK)

Hi all!

I started my value betting journey two weeks ago and have since placed over 800 bets, but not once come anywhere near the CLV and am currently running at a loss.

I have used the default settings for the majority of my bets. However, I recently made the following changes:

  • Minimum value percentage: increased from 3% to 4%
  • Adjust for open bets: turned off as I was betting peanuts come the end of each day
  • Max stake size: decreased from 1.5% to 1%

I would really appreciate it if anyone could give me some tips to improve my settings.



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I’ve had a couple of bad weeks. I looked at my data and ran it with fixed rather than variable and the results were far better. Ive switched to fixed at 1%, min 4% value and its turned around. Hopefully yours will pick up as well.

Nice, just switched mine to fixed too. I’m now running at a profit since making these changes, just hope it stays that way!

Kelly staking is superior but with a max stake size of 1% you pretty much use flat staking 1% at most of your bets. Far better to keep Kelly and change Kelly criterion to a lower percentage. The 30% has through simulations proved to be a good trade off between maximizing profit and risk of loosing.
You have otherwise, IMHO, good settings but far too few bets. BTW I’m negative with Basktball after 1000 bets so I do not currently bet on that sport.

@totrashbin01 have you tried running a data comparison of your kelly staking with fixed staking? When i did, the fixed staking out performed the kelly by more than double.

Thanks for your reply, I am torn between flat and kelly staking! Since updating my settings a few days ago to flat staking etc. I have gone from a £97 loss to over £300 profit.

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too many booikes i would say. keep 2-3 will be fine

Yes. Also based on simulations from TMS and based on real user betting data from many users over time. It all support Kelly.