Dear all,
I’m new to this “Rebel Betting world” and I have a brief question:
I don’t understand what is meant by “Value”?? - I see that it is explained as “The expected value of this bet at bet placement.”
But does it simply mean that the higher the “Value” is - the higher the chance of winning??
But look at my example:
For instance, I win on a bet with a value of 3.25% and on 4.00% - but I lose on bets with a value of 4.93%, 4.95% and 4.99%.
Is there something I have misunderstood or do not understand??
Thanks in advance.
Have a wonderful day.
/Peter
Thx - but that is not answering my question !!!
But does it simply mean that the higher the “Value” is - the higher the chance of winning??
- or is it only in my examples there is something wrong ???
The value is the average % of profit you would expect to make on that bet if you made it a million times. You need to have tons and tons of bets placed to get closer to the expected % of value. You’re going to go on win and loss streaks in the short term, this is just variance.
Value % has nothing to do with the probability of a bet winning or losing.
The losing bet at 4.99% value was placed at odds of 1.97 at the bookmaker which expressed as a probility is 50.76% chance of a win.
The value comes from the fact that the true probability of the team winning would be 4.99% higher than this as calculated by Rebel Bet. If we divide the bookie odds by the value % we get true odds of 1.87 and converting back to probability we get 53.29% chance of the bet winning.
For comparison the probability of 4% bet at 2.35 winning was only 44% and the 4.22% bet at 4.35 was 23.95%.
Just because a bet has a high probability of winning doesn’t mean it will always win. it just means that over a large enough sample set it will trend towards the expected result.
