Value Betting Noob

I’m so confused I would greatly appreciate it if someone could help me out. So I’m using the paid valuebetting but not the pro version, if I’m placing bets how do I know that the outcome of me winning the bet is more likely.

Like will the system determine which team is more likely to win with the current odds error. I’ve placed 7 bets and lost 4 so far, do I continue on and eventually will the odds fall in my favour. I’ve been watching the videos on the software so I get the idea.

I just don’t get how will i know that eventually the teams I’m betting on will actually win these bets? Thanks for reading

In fact, you don´t need to worry about “the more likely outcome”.
The method of value betting is exactly to take the “worry” factor away.
They use 3 things: a bet with a unbalanced odd in your favor, the “big numbers theory” and the kelly criterion.
If you read the site´s faq, you will get it.
The most important thing is to understand the “big numbers theory”: if you make A LOT OF BETS, usually the distribution is 50-50, half wins-half lose, but if you are with unbalanced odds, the half you win will guarantee you “profits”.
The Kelly criterion is to maximize your gains against the risks.
So, sure, with due time you can tweak some things, you can choose some bookies and sports you like more… but, as a begginer, just SPAM BETS!
You need like 5 bookies (not clone ones, not the same bet offering, you can ask here some tips about good bokies).

Mate thank you for your response, I appreciate it so much. Ok my last question based on kelly book do I have to go based on the bet amount it tells me to use. Like it’s telling me roughly $3 stake per bet.

I’m not greedy but I would like to bump it to $10 per bet and place every bet at $10 will this mess up the variance. By the time I make any significant profit before I get limited probably wouldn’t make sense. I’m starting with $200 but will add more if this work :slight_smile:

Thanks again

If you increased the Kelly criterion, you are saying: “I am ready to risk more”.
So, in a bad wave of results (variances and chance are omnipresent in betting), you can gain more and lose more.
I am with more than 20k bets, always using the 2% kelly.
What changed A LOT is my BANKROLL, so you kelly will reflect it.
So, you have 2 choices: increase your bankroll or increase you kelly percentage (riskier, for good or bad)… both in the menu options.
I started with … about 500 dollars, divided in 5 bookies, 100 each!

That’s literally how much I’m starting with $50 each spread out amongst many many bookers. About 60 bets in and I’m losing but it’s not too bad so far. I’ve realized some bookies are just straight losses and others are more balanced, but it’s way too early to tell where I stand.

Wouldn’t it make the most sense though to have min odds at 2 so if you win, you would make up 2 previous losses providing that you are betting the same amount every time?

As the promise land in value betting is reached by doing as much bets as possible, if you filter is set to 2.0 odds, you will have less value bets appearing for you, so you will bet less…
So, in the core of this method/strategy/software, you should not use min odd of 2.