Value Betting Pro - 1 month (Netherlands) tryout

Sport betting in the netherlands hasn’t been allowed till last year. When the market opened for a select number of bookmaker. Which are about 7 at this time.

Before that time i have been betting for years but since word got out that the marked would open up most bookies closed up for dutch customers.

I always made my bets though my own systems and analyses. Finding value that way. But interested to see what results value betting brings without looking at other data.

my setup:

for this test i use 3 bookmakers. 2 who are officially available here in Netherlands and 1 who officially isnt allowed.


money mangement:
the settings in the software are too aggresive to my liking. when you start out. you should never bet 1.5% of your bankrole. certainly not wil the wild varancy swings. So i wil use 0,5% on every bet. i will keep the kelly staking size to 30%

each bookmaker got € 200,00 bet credit. for each bet i will place a max bet of € 1,00. Once i have profit of € 10,00. I will move up from 0,5% to 1% max stake. So my max bet will be € 2,00.

adjust for open bets is on.

I have selected all sports. because i want to gather as much data as posssible.

i have an main filter for unibet and bet365.
odds: 1:40 - 2:50
value 5-20
time to match start 300 hours
hide lower tier (off on monday till thursday, on fiday till sunday)

5 dimes filter
only thing different in this filter is that hide lower tier is always off and values is set from 3-20.

what do i want to find out:

  1. can this make a profit in the long run?
  2. is there a difference in performance between value bet pro and value bet starter. does one out perform the other.

this test wil run from oktober 17th till november 17th.

number off bets:
i like to come out between 1.500-2.000 bets during that time. So i need to place a average number off daily bets between 50-66.

1 Like

Hey man, hope you will enjoy the ride

I am from Belgium, and I am very interested on how you opened an account on bet365.

week 1 is in the books. here are the results. bets are classified on the day they are placed. Not the day they are played.

Number of bets placed: 830

17 oktober 2022
starting Balance € 0,00
ending balance: € 6,00

18 oktober 2022
starting Balance € 6,00
ending balance: € 16,46

upping max stake from € 1,00 to € 2,00

19 oktober 2022
starting Balance € 16,46
ending balance: € 49,75

20 oktober 2022
starting Balance € 49,75
ending balance: € -5,79

21 oktober 2022
starting Balance € -5,79
ending balance: € -4,31

22 oktober 2022
starting Balance € -5,79
ending balance: € 21,79

23 oktober 2022
starting Balance € 21,79
ending balance: € 13,66

The first 3 days where good. But on the 4th day the correction came. The bets that where placed that day went on a 8-28 record. day 5 a little in the red too. day 6 the recovery came. To get us a few units in the green. The 7th day we gave some profit back.

for the first few days. i checked the difference between what the starter and the pro gives.

total bets: 334
wins: 118
loss 104
halfwins 9
halflosses 9

value betting pro
record: 35-30
result: € 6,39
Bets: 99

value betting starter 5% and up
record : 37-31
result: € 6,85

value betting starter less then 5%
record: 45-42
result: € 2,74

total bets less then 7% value: 235

As you can see. The expected profit based on CLV line should be around € 55,00. The real profit right now is € 12,00 euro.

tennis and american football are my bad picks value picks atm.

looking at markets. only asian is in the profit. all other are minus with over/under and three way my bad value picks atm.

But after a week of testing this out. I prefer playing select games over trowing 100s of darts in a week.

Really interesting to see, and that’s a lot of bets to be placing. I hope things balance out in the long run.

I’ve just finished my first month at about £900 profit, though I only did about 550 bets as I started out with small deposits

Keep it up :relaxed:

Using such small stakes with a cap of €1, I’m guessing that Kelly stake sizing will not work for you as it should? Ideally, you want to bet more when there is high value. You might not get that effect when micro staking with only 0.5% max stake.

Of course, you are free to test whatever you want, but there is a reason why we have suggested default settings.

1 Like

but value betting works in short term
but in long term it really do not works
only way to make profits in very long term
to make the move to soccer trading
i did full time valuebetting via tradematesports arround 30 k profits 2 years ago
limit in all places except sbo bet and pinnacle

but after that i move to soccer trading take more time behind pc but avg 10-15 points a month

general valuebetting great in short term thinking

he is from holland so he can have access to bet365 as they are allowed in holland

How did you get 5Dimes in the Netherlands. And has it cause any problems?