Value betting process going wrong direction (after almost 4000 bets)


I’ve been using Value betting software almost three months. During first 3300 bets (it took 2 months) I was pretty happy, as I had 400€ profit (expected profit 520€ at that time), as you can see on the picture below. Then something happened and I started lose much more than I earned. During last month (about 600 bets) my profit has lowered to 167 € while expected profit has raised to 615 €. So, what the hell is happening? Is this normal variance?

I know that one reason is the limits that I got from Marathonbet and William Hill even I play with small stakes. They had good odds that I can’t benefit anymore. Now also Unibet is limiting me. One of the good bookers is Bet365, but there’s some problem with their odds because everytime I try to bet something, the odds are already lowered (even I try to bet right after the bet appears on list).

There was also short period three weeks ago when I couldn’t find anything to play with my normal settings, so I placed bets with little higher odds (up to 4 or something) than usually. It didn’t work at all and I lost over 100 € in short time.

Anyway, now my profits won’t even cover the licence costs, so do you have any ideas what could I do? Or do I just have to give up? I’ve been trying to focus on soccer and tennis bets as they seem to make profit little better. But not enough.

My normal settings are:
Kelly 30#
Max stake 1%
Sports and Markets: Hockey, Soccer, tennis, AH, Threeway, Win (I don’t play OverUnder bets anymore)
Value: 2 - 30
Odds: 1,5 - 2,9
Time to match start: 12 hours

I have placed over 3000 bets with those settings and rest of bets with little higher odds.

Thank you for any tips!

This is probably one of the major reasons. Go back to basics and your original settings.

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what was the day you reach profit 400 ?? and you started to lose money

dont lose faith, see my big red box, its been more than a month (sample size about 1500), my bankroll is going nowhere, but this is the bet series on sharp bookies
also check the smaller box, it just happen yesterday. losing 900 eur total on friday and saturday, recover all at sunday

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Nifty: Yeah, I actually changed back to my original settings after I realized that higher odds didn’t work at all. Still, I only lost about 100 € with those bets, so process would be in a bad situation even without them.

pooler: On December 20, 2019, my profit was 400€. Problems begun after that as I faced those limits and wasn’t able to find any good odds. Now I have only Bet365, Unibet and Bethard, and I think they are not enough. Can you suggest some good bookers which won’t set limits too soon?

Steven_Van_Lie: Thanks for your stats. Ok, you have had zero situation with pretty long. I think your stakes are much higher than mine? Still, I lost over 60% of my profits during four weeks (about 600 bets), and it’s hard to accept. And the difference between our stats is that you are still over expected profit, while my actual profit is only about 27% of expected profit. That’s why this is difficult to consider as a normal variance. BTW, do you place bets for all sports and markets or what kind of settings you have? Or do you have other good tips?

my total sample size (when i post that graph) is about 7k bets
the bet i mark on circle is the bet on sharp bookies which is only give me about 1-2% EV when placed.
You got 2-3x advantage compared to me.

by the way, i once making about 4k in a single bet365 account, i dont know why they limit me so late.

max stake 1% is too low try raising it so Kelly can do its job

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If this helps Don’t use unibet their odds are not great instead use Bwin there odds are better

“odds are not great” what do you mean ??

when I compare bet365 and unibet, unibet is perfect … much more bets and only few times bet not exist

Bwin has higher odds and value bets than 365 (soccer) that’s my opinion. And the odds on 365 drops faster = not good

Bye bye Bwin. It was good as long it lasted

Hi Pooler I urgently need to contact you regarding your bet placement bot. I am a pro tipster and also have a value betting program I have been running for several years now, it is nothing to do with RB and works just fine. I need to integrate one of my programs with an auto bet placement function and am having trouble finding a way to make it work. I expect if I put an email or other contact on here it will get moderated out so any ideas how we could make contact directly. I am on the Quora forum so maybe you could message me on there or maybe directly on my FB page.

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