Value betting profitability increased

We’ve done a couple of improvements that increases the overall profitability of value betting.

The most noticeable change for you is that we have removed Draw on football (soccer) as these bets have been showed not being profitable.

Our sample size is statistically significant with over 120,000 bets.
Flat yield 2021 on Draws are in the negative of -1.56%. At the same time, the same bets has a CLV of +1.6%. Which indicates that there lies significant betting bias in this particular bet type.

Your yield should increase coming forward as we’ve removed bets that are not profitable :grinning:


After 26.000 bets since March 2019 i had only 1.35% return and also that return profitability has reduced a lot in last 1 year.
I was at 2.7% last september 2020,and now only 1.31%.
So i am 1 year without profit and using same settings same bookies…
Only thing that changed is that when i made a biggest profits there was Value Betting starter only for 79eur per month.
Since you make Pro version,this started to happen with a return…and i dont know how to explain this,but i had more bet’s showing with starter then with Pro now,and the Pro is twice the price of starter now.
My profit in september 2020 was 49k,and now i am stuck at 45k.
I use same settings…

As far as I can see Vladimir, the vast majority of your bets has been placed with one specific bookmaker. Which you basically stopped using the last 6-7 months?

Also, you have only placed ~150 bets per month in average the last 12 months (and only 40 bets in average per month the last 5 months). Compared to ~575 bets per month in average for the period 12 months prior. This can of course have a big impact, as you will move closer to your expected profit the more bets you place. And you placed almost 4 times more bets December to November 2020 than the same period this year.

Might not explain everything, but perhaps a lot?

what betting site you using and not getting limited ?

No no…i started in march 2019,using bet365,and i was banned from bet365 few months later(i was a bet365 user from 2013).After that i use BetClic most of the time but i use some other bookies(1xbet,10bet,Willhill,stoiximan,unibet…),but 90% betclic and i use it today too…
I place bets on a regular basis 20-30 on working days,and 30-50 on weekends,and that did not change anything(only time when i placed less was in first 2 months of COVID when there was no games)…I have 26.000 bets placed from march 2019,and i have 7000 bets deleted by mistake from Excel log book,that is 33k bets all together,but lets count only this 26k,that is about 26-27 per day in average.
I still use Excel log book.
So in my tacticts,nothing has changed…settings are same,everything same…
Just there was a lot more bets before,in program,before web version,i remember when i had 50-60 bets in weekend at a time in program only in BetClic bookie,bet365 had about 80-90 at a time.
Also i can send you log book if you don’t believe in my words…
I just want to say i am a regular user,there was no month without subscription from march 2019,somethimes i had sure bett and value bett in same time.
I have no reason to talk bad on RebellBetting because i made money on it,and i use it still,but i just want to say that something has changed,there was way more bets before in starter version,than now in pro.

Average yield dropped slightly during Q2 and Q3 of 2021 to around 2,1%. This is true and has nothing to do with you changing subscription.

However, things have turned sharply upwards. Right now Q4 is the next best performing quarter ever, since 2019.

Ok.Why there is no handicaps on hockey matches any more?there was plenthy of that in 2019,and it was good profit on them,at least on bookies that i have used?

1 Like

What filters do you use?

I use all sports except Esports,odds 1.2-3.3,kelly 30,stake 3%…
And 90% time BetClic is what i am using

1 Like

So this means you leave the time on 48hrs? Im wondering if its better to put it to 6hrs? Thank you for the information.

No,my time is on 12hrs,i forgot to mention that,but i always place those closest to start…wery rearly i i use 8+hrs…

1 Like

We’re looking into this, hopefully more handicap hockey bets coming up soon!

1 Like