% Value Choosing

Hi there,

I was just wondering in betting tactics in terms of percentage value and volume.

Boarding from the free version, my idea was that I would place a lot more +5% value bets. Now, I still need to diversify my bookie list, I really had hoped to run full out on one bookie, but turns out you run out if VBs pretty quickly.

I am wondering about the mathematical statistical calculations of long term profits when choosing for example double the amount of 3%value bets compared to 6% value bets. Put in other words, if i place 10000 bets at 6%, compared to 20000
bets at 3%, do i end up in the same place?

In other words yet again. Where is your statistical calculated limit for placing bets. Does it make sense to just go for max volume or is it mathematically more sensible to be choosy with your money.

I know we have to factor in a lot of circumstances i. e. % open bankroll, available bets etc. However i was wondering if anyone had made mathematically sound calculations on best Long Term strategies, as I am a bit picky and reluctant going for 2% VB here at the beginning of “my journey” - am I holding myself off from profits?

If you place a bet with a value of 6% it will have a higher stake than a bet with a value of 3%(assuming that the odds are the same). This is because of Kelly’s stake sizing. So if you place 10 000 bets with 6% value, your turnover will be the same as 20 000 bets with 3% value. But because your value is higher, you profit more.

In my opinion, you should try to bet your whole bankroll during the time you had for betting. If you bet your bankroll too fast, raise your value. If you can’t play your whole bankroll, lower your value. A bet with a 3% value is better than no bet at all.

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You truly are a community hero - Thanks for the tip on Kelly’s stake sizing. I hadn’t thought about that aspect - wasn’t aware of that term and its meaning.


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