Variance Screwing Me Over


I’m one week in 1000 bets placed and am £338 down. I fully understand variance but this is harsh. Looking for words of encouragement and people who’ve been in the same position and have turned it around. Keep waking up each morning hoping it will have improved but every morning I’m more in the negative. Any help and advice will be massively appreciated.

Ive been doing this for about 6 months, and tried everything , because i know exactly what it feels like. You need to know that the Value Bets are NOT 100% GUARANTEED TO WIN TIPS. Some days your graph is like yours, heading south…and you think there is now way it will turn around…BEEN THERE!..but other days, for no good reason it sweeps back up. Ive done just over 9000 bets, and am in profit. Along the way Ive seen times of 3 -4 days on the trot of constant downward swing - which is called Variance ( I called it Bankroll slaughter ! ) ,but maybe Ive been lucky in that its in profit, the only way you can go is forward and fingers crossed it will upswing for you Friend.

Thank you, I’m ok with variance but it just feels harsh after only 1 week. I know rebel betting say to allow around 6000 bets before reading into anything. I do a lot of value betting and casino, guess I just need to try and turn off. Thank you for responding, I really appreciate it.

What’s your settings? I have been value betting for a month now and I haven’t had a single ‘‘downswing’’. Just steady course up all the time. We are betting at the same period of time so we probably differ a lot if settings. I’m 1200 euros positive after 1000 bets.

Would you mind sharing your settings please and I’ll get mine changed. I’m working on 2k Kelly at the moment. I’m obviously doing something wrong.


The biggest issue I see is the 100 hours you have. That’s a lot and can cause more variance. I just go with soccer, tennis and Hockey. Works great. Baseball and basketball is also very variance high.

Perfect, thank you, I’m get my settings changed and hopefully pull it back. Appreciate your response, thank you :slightly_smiling_face:

Settings all changed, I’ll let you know in a week if it’s helped :crossed_fingers:. Thanks again, really appreciate it.

No worries, happy to help. Usually I go with 48 hours in the weekdays to get in more bets, and then >24 hours during the weekend. Sometimes I also up the minimum value to 4.5 during weekends.

With having less sports you do not get limited as fast also, because you could just be very good at betting. But if you bet on all type of markets it’s very suspicious.

Hope it helps!

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Also, this way you obviously wont get as many bets as before, but that’s no issue. 1000 bets in a week is A LOT. As I said I’ve done 1000 bets in 25 days. It’s less suspicious for the bookies and you bet on bets that is less variance heavy. And the profit is still there, have patience! :slight_smile:

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Oh, and if you’re using pro version you should not have max value at 8 of course. :slight_smile: I got max 7 value :frowning:

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