Wanting to give up

I know this is small sample size, but I’m down 750 GBP now over 400 bets whilst only averaging £10-15 stakes. I knew there would be variance, but this seems so drastic that I feel like I’m doing something wrong. Being £1000 under EV with only £5000 in turnover stakes just seems huge. I’m used to playing Poker to earn a small amount of income, but these swings seem much more drastic.


Hello! Smarkets is an exchange and should be considered sharp, at least for most markets.

I suggest adding one or two soft bookmakers.

I couldn’t fit all the bookmakers in the pictures. I have about 10 soft bookmakers in the filter.

Betway, BetVictor, Jenningsbet, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports, 888Sport, Netbet, SkyBet & Unibet. I used to have Bet365 in there, but wanted to protect the account to access 2UP’s

Smarkets is the only exchange I use as I have 0% commission through oddsmonkey.

Checked your stats and you are indeed running very cold. Your CLV is +3.87% which indicates that you are placing profitable bets. My best advice is to hang in there, you will profit in the long run (but I know from personal experience, both from poker and value betting, that downswings suck!)

Here’s an article on how to reduce variance that might help.

I noticed that you took advantage of our Profit Guarantee and hope the coming month swings in your favour.

Hi, I would check your bookies section in your reports. Right at the beginning of using BetVictor they started to drain my funds badly. Luckily I had previously made what I had lost with a bookie I had used from the beginning.

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Perhaps manually check your value bets on pinnacle before placing just to weed out any bets that aren’t offering value. Other than that i recommend you keep on placing bets and the your profits should converge with your CLV over time. Stay rational!

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