Just to get myself prepped for when a downswing kicks in, I was wondering what the best course of action to take is if it happens.
Let’s say I currently have £1500 as my current balance and a downswing occurs. As it drops, would I still update my current balance on the settings each day to the new dropped total balance amount and therefore be placing smaller and smaller bets as the downswing eats the balance OR do you keep the current balance as it is and just continue to bet the same stakes as if it wasn’t happening until the downswing turns around?
Any advice would be awesome!
I think you are describing a progressive staking plan that uses the “ratchet” setting, that is to say, stake sizes are never reduced.
If you ratchet your highest stake size, you would miss the main advantage of a staking system that is based on your bank size. Reducing stakes during a downswing provides a fighting retreat.
I have run Monte Carlo simulations on horse racing systems and they nearly always lead to bankruptcy when applying a rachet system. However, I don’t reduce the size of my starting bet size.
Update your bankroll, both in up- and downswings.
Rebelbetting has some excellent articles on how to manage the bankroll both during up- and downswings.
I prefer to delay to update my bankroll for about seven days both on up- and down-swings.