What I learned my first two weeks value betting

So, I don’t like sports. That may sound strange from a guy who places dozens of sports bets each day. I got into this because the math was attractive. The idea that you could beat bookmaker at their own game with math just sounded too fun to pass up.

I read through everything I could find before getting into this. I was very confident that I fully understood the mathematical and strategic principles behind valuebetting and surebetting. What I didn’t realize, is how much I didn’t realize. So without further ado, here are the three things I learned in my first two weeks:

  1. Liquidity is a big restraint. If you don’t have free capital reserved for when one of your accounts inevitable goes broke, that account will sit dormant until you can withdraw from other bookmakers. I didn’t realize how long it would take to withdraw money from some bookmakers. I’m currently on week 3 without payout from Comeon (technical error - not malice). If you have a small or medium bankroll this can pose a big problem. Make sure to set aside part of your bankroll, don’t deposit it all at once like I did.

  2. Variance. Understanding how variance works does not mean you understand variance feels. When you’ve invested so much time, energy and money into a project, your brain is very sensitive to initial results. You feel stressed about every downswing. I got past this by actually calculating my expected variance in my logbook. This made clear to me that I hadn’t placed nearly enough bets, and looking at results at that point was meaningless. Since then I’ve swung back up :slight_smile:

  3. Geographical restrictions. I’m from Canada - we have some of the loosest gambling regulations in the world. I didn’t realize that geographical restrictions extended way beyond who you could open an account with. I can’t use e-wallets like Skrill or Neteller. I can deposit to most bookmakers with my credit card, but I can’t withdraw onto the same credit card, at any bookmaker, due to international finance regulations. I’m sure many countries have it much worse; I’m not complaining. However, I would encourage people to open accounts at bookmakers before they start valuebetting. Make a solid plan first.

What did you guys learn your first few weeks?


I loved your response!

I am brand new to value betting but have been betting on “value” for quite some time with in play tips.

It is a whole new world in betting with just odds movements vs looking for the right bet to place with implied odds vs actual odds.

Overall I think this is great and will be looking to make many bets in January. What kind of results have you had?

BTW, also from Canada :wink:

This is a great idea, we should add it to the reports! Variance can definitely feel very unfair at times :slight_smile: