Value can disappear in seconds from the value appearing, why is this? Is it entirely because the soft bookie has dropped their odds? I place quite a few of the value bets at odds suggested for another bookie on exchanges - if value disappears whilst placing these bets, how would that affect me placing those bets on the exchange?
Why would the value change or disappear aside from the odds just no longer being available?
perhaps a more suitable question is how often does value disappear because soft odds have
changed, compared to value bet odds turning out to be actual odds?
It also could be because more bets have been loaded since you opened that bet. The software only shows the top 10 at one time and I often find that if I open a bet, the sound alert for a new bet will go off and it will say ‘value disappeared’, only then for the bet to reappear a few mins later after clearing the queue, if that makes sense?
This is a design fault IMO, it’s saying ‘value disappeared’ but all that’s really happened to the bet is that it’s been pushed down the queue out of the top 10.
that’s unfortunate. Could really do with simply mentioning why the value has disappeared, like if the function is there to detect value disappearing be it through losing the soft odds or the value odds becoming the actual odds, then you would imagine notifying the user of this would be incredibly easy. Not sure what reason they might have not to make it clear?
I would like to revisit this topic since I have been experiencing the same phenomenon and the topic remained open. It is also an interesting theoretical question, because the value can disappear over time, since the soft odds will change (most of the time) and once we placed that bet it is a hidden information and will impact our indicators (Yield, ROI etc.).
Let’s say that I have a value bet and the match will start in 8 hours. I play this bet, because there is no “value disappeared” warning message pops up and I feel safe to play this bet. I log it and it will appear in my statistics. What happens if the true odds will change before the match starts and my value bet will not be considered a value bet anymore (but I’ve played the bet already)?
Could it be a solution to play with the time factor and place value bets just before the match starts? It has less probability to “lose it’s value” after I put money on it. On the other hand it requires to stay online and hunt for these last minutes value bets…
All in all if I had 100k bets and certain but relatively high % of these bets disappeared (because the true odds has changed) AFTER I placed these bets that will definitely impact my yield. If had captured these value bets at a time when “value disappeared” warning message shows up, I wouldn’t have played just removed and potentially saved more money.
Hope you understand my point here and please reassure me that you have statistics about this and it is not that concerning
If the true odds increase the bet has a negative value. This happens from time to time and is completely normal. Only something like 80 to 90% of bets beat the closing line. This is still enough to make a profit. Remember that odds can also move the other way meaning your value can also increase after you placed the bet.
There is a lot of talk about the time to match start but Rebelbetting statistics show that it has little to no correlation to results. Check the original topic.
Thanks Jakob, greatly appreciate your help (again). I just read that topic and it is super useful. I like the rationale that was made by the developers