Which odds are best?

1

I have this weird idea that if I set the odds to at least 2.0 then I can lose half the bets and still break even

I was quite successful when I first started betting but I then got variance and then it improved again. So I did have success doing this but on my second run I was less successful.

I know that there is variance and sometimes you will be down but I see succcessful posts sometimes when I wasnt doing so well

I know odds usually correlate to the chance of success of a match so I do know that lower odds mean a higher chance of winning but in my mind I think if something is lets say 1.4 and I lose then I’ve lost my whole stake. If I win then I have only won 40% so I need to win 2+ bets to recover one loss

for example a loss would be -£10 and a win would be stake back and +£4 sometimes I think is that worth it but then again the chance of winning should be higher right so is that the better setting?

but 2.0 you still lose only -£10 but if you win then you get your stake back +£10. so only do 2.0? lol I need help figuring it out

So just wondering if anyone has experimented lets say with one week using lowers odds of 1.2 or 1.4 etc and a week with 2.0 or some other variation.

I just want to make sure I’m going to use the optimum settings before I try again for a 3rd time.

Hopefully I can get these silly ideas out of my head if they are silly! Please help lol

Also maybe value % too? but I think its mainly about odds first but any help is appreciated

2

Ive pondered on the same thing. In many axamples used to describe value betting , a coin toss is used. This outcome is the same as 2.0 odds , and yet with a value bet we are getting a price of 2.0 that is actually overpriced, so its weird that your experiment does not work.
I think the flaw is not a mathematical one, its the fact that humans set the odds…and how do you set odds for a 4 th division Icelandic Soccer match with any accuracy?

3

Value betting is undoubtedly a challenging topic, and finding the right approach is essential for long-term success. You mentioned the idea of setting odds at least 2.0 to break even even if you lose half the bets, which has some merit. However, it’s crucial to understand the concept of value and its relationship to the closing line value (CLV).

The closing line value (CLV) is calculated as the difference between the odds you bet on and the odds at the time the game starts. If the odds decrease to 1.8 at game time after you placed a bet at 2.0, your CLV would be -10%. Conversely, if the odds increase to 2.2, your CLV would be +10%. To maximize your CLV, many people recommend adjusting the time to start in your settings.

Regardless of the odds you choose, the most crucial factor in value betting is identifying situations where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the outcome occurring. This is where the value lies.

Now, let’s consider two scenarios:

Betting on odds of 2.0 with a CLV of 4%.
Betting on odds of 1.4 with a CLV of 4%.
Mathematically, both strategies would yield similar results over time, assuming you consistently find bets with a 4% CLV. The key difference lies in the variance and the volume of bets you can place with each strategy.

Choosing odds of 2.0 would lead to higher variance because higher odds naturally result in a wider range of potential outcomes. While winning bets would yield more substantial profits, losing streaks could be more significant as well.

Opting for odds of 1.4, on the other hand, would offer lower variance, providing a more stable betting experience. However, due to the lower odds, you would need a higher win rate to remain profitable in the long run.

In conclusion, while odds selection is important, having as much volume as possible is the most crucial factor in value betting. Each positive value bet contributes to your overall profit, and limiting your selections to specific odds ranges can significantly reduce your potential volume and, consequently, your potential profit. Therefore, a balanced approach that focuses on finding positive CLV opportunities regardless of the odds range is generally more effective.

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Ye I guess you need more volume so lowering the odds would give you more bets to get on.

But if you are getting a decent amount of bets already and able to use your whole bankroll then it would work out well

But if you are using your whole bankroll and having wider variance then you are putting yourself at more risk

I will give it a go with lower odds I think so its more stable and less risk!

Thank you for your replies!

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