You won't always win

Hi! I would like to share my journey after 1 month with rebel betting starter pack. I placed some 3500 bets and here are the results:

Hi Arttu! Thanks for sharing. You’re correct, and you’ve had some bad luck. (But not as extreme as the “luck rating” would indicate).

After 3500 bets with a 2.33% CLV the probability looks like this:

The light grey area is one standard deviation, 68% of the time you will be inside this area.
The dark grey is two standard deviations, 95% of the time you will be inside this area.

So even if the average profit in this scenario will be 620 units, there is a 32% chance your profits would be below 132 units (like in your case). It’s equally probable you would be above 1050 units.

That’s the effect of variance in a normal distribution and a (relatively) small edge.

However, consider after placing 7000 bets:

Now more than 95% of users will be profitable, and 68% of users will have a profit between 630 and 1848 units.

Here is an update of my results. A bit over 5000 bets! Current bankroll 1100€