Just reached £10k profit ($12.k, e11.5k, SEK132k) after 3.5 months, still on first round of accounts (just!). Bankroll £2k, based in UK.
My settings/filters are pretty standard: 3-20 for Value, 1.4-2.7 for odds (this gives me an average of approx 2, which means a loss is covered by a win on average). I bet most sports (dropped a couple for -CLV) and all markets .
My approach is pretty simple - CLV is the key metric, I ignore yield - I want CLV as strong and consistent as possible - currently 4.7%. To do this I aim for a TTS: Value ratio of maximum 1:1 - so 3% value no more than 3 hours, 6%, no more than 6, etc. My average TTS is 4.5 hours. I do this to reduce the number of -EV bets. I know TTS doesn’t impact CLV in the long-term but it contributes significantly to CLV variance in the short term and I won’t place anywhere near the 100k+ bets for it to flatten out This isn’t the right way, it is my way. Plenty of others very successful with longer TTS.
Obviously volume is key but I prefer to think of bankroll turnover. If I have bank of £1000 and CLV of 3%, each bank turnover creates a theoretical profit of £30, £10,000 turnover = £300, £100,000 turnover = £3000. 1000 x £1 bets would be very high volume but a very inefficient way to turn a profit.
Anyway, thank you RB - great system, great product, great community.
I use 30% Kelly (think that is default) which suggests a bet size based on the expected value and profit. I have “adjust for open bets” off because I want to bet my full bankroll as often as possible without any impact to stake size
Hello man, i will start with 500€ in a couple of months too with a couple of german bookies and also bet365. I see that 5k of youre profit are from bet365. Did it went good from the start or was it bad at first? And do you have strategys of not getting limited? Also, bet365 takes 5% Tax here in Germany, how would you try to avoid loosing profit of it?
In was using a 5-year old mug punting account, so not new at all. There are some tips on the forum on what you can do to delay being limited - and it is a delay because you will get limited if you are beating the closing line and/or consistently profitable. I can’t really comment on the tax but you will need to factor in losing 5% on winning bets. I think you can add this into Rebel Betting on the bookmaker tab.
Sure. I focus on TTS:Value ratio being 1:1 or better - so 3% = 3 hours or less, 6% = 6 hours or less, etc. This helps keep a strong CLV (4.7%) by reducing the number of -EV bets. As you can see form this chart -EV bets are not profitable (this is mug punting), so reducing them is key to my approach.
Do u ever ‘‘cheat’’ a little bit? Like betting on a 6.2% with 8h tts? I also focus on having a high CLV% but I wonder if it leads to a lower turnover and makes a slower CLV profit growth since I place less bets.
Yes, I will if volume is low but not by much, so something like your example would sneak in on a slow day. You are right, it is a pay off with volume but in my approach CLV is king so it just wins out!
Wow great results and thanks for sharing. Just a question, how did you manage to place so many bets on betfair sports book? Most of the time, especially when getting closer to games, the real odds shown are lower than those of rebel betting and its quite difficult to put in the volume of bets compared to using bet365
Betfair sportsbook and Betfair exchange are not the same odds. They only share the account. @ObsidianQuartz
Still I am impressed by the amount of bets placed on the BF Sportsbook - I usually get limited much faster.
Yes, a surprise to me too. I am soft limited, mainly on low tier tennis and football. It’s still my original account from a few years ago but I do all my trading on the exchange, about £10k a month turnover, so I wonder if that makes a difference?
Yes I know they have different odds. But I’m having difficulties on placing bets on both since most of the time the odds shown on the platform are lower than the ones I see in the sure bets proposed by RB. Any suggestion on how to improve that? I see that @ObsidianQuartz has been able to place similar volumes of bets on BF compared to bet365, while I’m finding it quite difficult to increase the volume of bets on betfair sportsbook
Hi, I’m clearly doing something wrong! he he… I mean I’m not complianing, £1200 over 2 months, but I’m also running low on accounts. I really only have Betfair Sportsbook and Betvictor… also Betfair Sportsbook are limiting some bets.
You say that your Kelley criterion is set at 30, mine the same… how do you have your maximum stake set?
I have my max stake set to a % that gives me £50. The truth is I’ve been lucky with B365 and BF Sportbook allowing me to bet for so long. They were both 5-year old mug punt accounts, which is difficult to replicate!
You can only start to draw some conclusions after 1,000 bets, 2,00 really, so any advice given starts with that. More volume needed Focus on keeping your CLV as high as possible, 0.48 is low. If you compare to your average value you can see that you’re losing over 4% on average. That means you are likely placing more -EV bets than you need to. Lowering your TTS (see my method above) helps strengthen your CLV by reducing -EV bets. But really, just get placing bets
This isn’t the right way, it is my way. Plenty of others very successful with longer TTS.
