1300 bets on Sharps (now Pro)

To be more precise, from the bets that VB suggests, I only get about 20% in. The other 80% either get a “Value disappeared” warning during making the bet, or the odds at the sharps are actually lower so that there is no value anymore.
But for the 20% that I make, I would not know how to check for actual value…

Thanks! If that’s the case, I guess this is not for me then…maybe RB can say something about this?

They once postet that BetInAsia and Sportmarket return a average yield of 3%, based on about 100k bets (if I remember correctly). So I guess there are people here who know more than me…

Well, ANYTHING I discover, I will share… but I am not the usual gambler :stuck_out_tongue:

@Simon or @Lars Can you please elaborate on if we should make all bets on sharps that we can, or if we should make other checks as well?
Edit: I am only talking about Sportmarket and BetInAsia. My understanding is that those two are considered “proven” profitable - is that correct?

As I’ve said many times, I recommend you bet on soft bookmakers.

Sportmarket and BetInAsia have positive aggregated yield yes, but the margins are small and will swing every month.

Do you have stats for AsianOdds (Pinnacle, 3et, BETISN and 188bet) you could share? I’m hesitant to bet on them as I don’t know how sharp they are.

Thanks in advance. :slight_smile:

Thanks @Simon, I am aware of that. For me there exists no legal way to use softs (well not the softs you have integrated). I either do it with Sportmarket and BetInAsia, or I don’t do it at all.
Here (https://www.rebelbetting.com/faq/value-betting-on-sharps) you write " If you’re a beginner, you might consider betting on soft bookmakers, to begin with. Or only bet on the sharp bookmakers with proven profitable results." The link goes to a thread in here that says there is yield with Sportmarket and BetInAsia. So I am still not sure now whether if betting on all offered value bets for Sportmarket and BetInAsia has a positive closing line EV or not

Me neither. I cannot see into the future. :slight_smile: I can only see historical performance and variance.

So there is an element of gambling here. Staying with softs, we know you will profit.

(It’s too bad you cannot bet on softs. I know it’s difficult to open accounts in other countries).

We are considering displaying yield per month and bookmaker (possibly also by sport and market, if we have significant amount of data). We want to be as transparent as possible, so you can make good decisions.

The problem is, if one bookmaker is underperforming one month, a significant number of users will stop betting on them. And if the next month is extremely profitable, we might never know, and you have missed out.

It’s like trying to predict the stock market by selling high and buying low - while the most profitable long-term strategy is just to buy all the time.

We cannot just log every value bet because there are too many false positives.

Happy to take suggestions how we can solve this!

I totally agree with all your points and that’s why I never disable specific markets/bookmakers (unless they limit me :wink:) but since my balance is finite, I was just wondering if the all-time yield for these sharps was worth it or if I should find other ways to bet on softies.

Thanks @Simon! Sorry if there was any confusion, I guess we were just no talking about the same thing. I of course know you can’t predict the future :wink: I was hoping you could share more insights into how the users using Sportmarket and BetInAsia are generating the 3% yield that you were writing about in the other thread.

Having data per bookmaker, sport and market, would be extremely helpful. I understand the significance issue though. My proposal would be: Just dump an Excel/CSV in the Forum with ALL the data you can share and have the users analyze on their own, instead of making easily accessible nice graphs. I would assume that the users who go the way to analyze data from an excel are the ones who can also understand the significance of the data. And like that, you would also not be making any “recommendations” to the users, as everyone is making their own.

I was trying to analyze my own data and find correlations between profit and time before match start/value/odds, in order to determine if any of the settings would be significantly wrong. But I could not find any correlation beating a p-value of 0.05.

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@Simon I find your response unbelievable! You’ve just launched your pro product which is all about betting on sharps and exchanges but here you’re saying umm I don’t know if you can make as any money from sharps! Wtf?!
Obviously we’d all bet on softs if we could. But I found your product after having my soft accounts closed and seeing your ad promoting value betting with sharps and exchanges as a way to continue.
Why are you promoting this if you don’t even know that it works?

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I never said that. In fact you can make some amazing profts from sharps. It’s just more difficult and might take longer before the variance evens out. I just want you to know the risks before you dive in with the sharks :slight_smile:

@Shey and @GoingForGold, here are updated stats (until we have a proper automatic report):

Hi Simon,

About the Yields from Sharp Bookmakers. Do you have the average overvalue of the bets per Bookmaker?

Best regards.

https://community.rebelbetting.com/t/update-value-betting-on-sharp-bookmakers/4918/42?u=simon

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Thanks very much simon.

To separate this information by sports is something you are not willing to do, right?

I can but I doubt it will be statistically significant (except for football) :slightly_smiling_face: Can check later.

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Thanks. If you can confirm the numbers of bets and the other data for football that would be nice.

Sure, I’ll check after the holidays!

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Hi Simon,

Can you share the info on the latest requests that we did above?