Update: value betting on sharp bookmakers

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1

Here’s an update on the performance of value betting on sharps.

It’s great to see the interest for sharp value betting, and it’s easy to understand why - you won’t get limited and can place large bets.

However, the edge is smaller, and variance will hit you harder. As an example, BetInAsia had a yield of 2.8% in October, which then swung to -3% in November! If you decide to bet on sharps, this is the reality you have to accept.

That said, you can get some fantastic profits long-term.

Value betting on sharps, up to 2020-01-13

Smarkets 	yield 2.68% (high avg odds 2.88)
Sportmarket	yield 2.29%
BetInAsia	yield 1.78%
3et		    yield 0.24%
Betfair		yield -0.90% (high avg odds 2.37)
BetISN		yield -2.57%
Matchbook	yield -2.59% (high avg odds 2.78)
Pinnacle	yield -3.72% (insufficient bets, not significant, high avg odds 2.68)

These results are statistically significant, except Pinnacle which I added anyway because there is a large interest. I would be surprised if Pinnacle turns positive, except on a few specific markets.

Note that sharps are only available in ValueBetting Pro. You also get double the amount of (soft) value bets, and value bets over 7%.

Update 2022-02-09

Sportmarket	2.14%
MatchBook	1.56% (few bets)
BetInAsia	1.35%
Smarkets	0.36% (high avg odds 3.10)
3et		    0.24%
Betfair		-0.90%
BetISN		-1.26%
Pinnacle	-3.18%
8 Likes
2

Thank you, this is exactly what I (and probably lots of people) wanted :slight_smile:

1 Like
3

Hi Simon, thanks for sharing. Would there be a way to break down that data into sports and betting and markets and odds range to have the ability to perform some more detailed analysis for sharp betting? That would be awesome!

Regards
Laura

4

Does the smarket one include commission?

2 Likes
5

Yes, this is something I want to add in the future.

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6

Yes, we calculate using the commission setting of each user.

7

By the way, how is the above yield calculated?

assume there are two bets, bet A with 1% yield and bet B with 9% yield.

if there is only one user, and this user makes both bets, the yield would be calculated as 5% I guess. But what is if there are 10 users, and one user makes bet A and B, while the rest of the users only make bet B. Would it also be calculated as 5%? or is it 8.3% in that case?

1 Like
9

i do like to be positive about rebelbetting but i can not 6000 trades yield 0.68% on the soft bookies
sbobet yield -50% 1000 bets

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@vanleej2012 I checked your stats to see if I could help. The problem is likely that you bet 1 or 2 euros each time.

When you round each bet to either 1 or 2, the stake calculation and the kelly criterion cannot work at all. You bet the same amount on a bet where we recommend €0.51 as you would a bet where we recommend you bet €1.49.

The recommended minimum bankroll is €500.

3 Likes
11

500

OK I WILL BET MORE 30% KELLY 500 BANKROLL

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12

can you post graph for last 12 months how is yield changing ? - graph for every bookmaker

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13

I AM BACK WITH 2000-4000 BETS more let see it make sense thks

14

Given the statistical significance of the results, I presume it makes sense to stay away from the negative yield bookmakers listed above, right? Just making sure I’m not misunderstanding anything.

1 Like
15

Hi Simon, I note your stats from the sharps are from 14 Jan. Could you please provide on update? My first (small) sample of bets have been inline with the results from that post.

16

@Simon would it be possible to get another update on the sharps?

Kind regards
Brad

1 Like
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Will there be any update ?

18

Yeah, any update?

19

Update 2022-02-09
Yield

Sportmarket	2.14%
MatchBook	1.56% (few bets)
BetInAsia	1.35%
Smarkets	0.36% (high avg odds 3.10)
3et		    0.24%
Betfair		-0.90%
BetISN		-1.26%
Pinnacle	-3.18%
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It is clear from this that comparing Pinnacle’s odds to weak bookmakers makes a profit. Pinnacle has quality reviews and has a hard time trying to beat them. Requires really accurate and better probability estimates to make that possible.

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Do you also bet on isn and pinnacle per SPORTMARKET or do you exclude them because they have -ev? Greets