Since about a month I have been betting on sharps (through Sportmarket and BetInAsia Brokers). Settings are 30% Kelly, max 3%, 2-20% value, 1.2-2.5 odds (was 3.2, but I tried to reduce variance). Time to start is 48h, otherwise I would not get more than 10 bets in per day. The closer the game the more unlikely that the odds still create some value.
I know that betting on sharps is not as profitable as with softs, but EV still says 4.5%. I am eagerly awating closing line EV in order to see what the actual numbers are.
Soccer is the only sport, and Asian handicap is the only bet type that are profitable. Hockey is currently paused due to the DNB issue discussed in another thread. Also, I lost some money with some bets on bet-at-home very early on, after which I only had sharps left. I would be around 0 profit without those.
while it continues to go down, here’s some shenanigans with a calculator using my numbers. I assumed a yield of 3%, which is what RB said in another thread to be the yield for Sportmarket and BetInAsia (roughly). So I guess I am just really unlucky? Not just hitting the 18% chance of loss at the end, the 17% chance of losing 25% of the starting bankroll, and doing worse than standard deviation.
I have no further decreased the max odds to 2.2. I don’t mind growth to be slow, but there has to be some growth…
Yes, I am pretty much betting on everything there is. I asked RB many times what they expect me to do specifically, but I never got an answer unfortunately, so I assumed I don’t have to do anything special. How would you suggest finding out if there is actually value or not?
To be more precise, from the bets that VB suggests, I only get about 20% in. The other 80% either get a “Value disappeared” warning during making the bet, or the odds at the sharps are actually lower so that there is no value anymore.
But for the 20% that I make, I would not know how to check for actual value…
@Simon or @Lars Can you please elaborate on if we should make all bets on sharps that we can, or if we should make other checks as well?
Edit: I am only talking about Sportmarket and BetInAsia. My understanding is that those two are considered “proven” profitable - is that correct?
Thanks @Simon, I am aware of that. For me there exists no legal way to use softs (well not the softs you have integrated). I either do it with Sportmarket and BetInAsia, or I don’t do it at all.
Here (https://www.rebelbetting.com/faq/value-betting-on-sharps) you write " If you’re a beginner, you might consider betting on soft bookmakers, to begin with. Or only bet on the sharp bookmakers with proven profitable results." The link goes to a thread in here that says there is yield with Sportmarket and BetInAsia. So I am still not sure now whether if betting on all offered value bets for Sportmarket and BetInAsia has a positive closing line EV or not
We are considering displaying yield per month and bookmaker (possibly also by sport and market, if we have significant amount of data). We want to be as transparent as possible, so you can make good decisions.
The problem is, if one bookmaker is underperforming one month, a significant number of users will stop betting on them. And if the next month is extremely profitable, we might never know, and you have missed out.
It’s like trying to predict the stock market by selling high and buying low - while the most profitable long-term strategy is just to buy all the time.
We cannot just log every value bet because there are too many false positives.
I totally agree with all your points and that’s why I never disable specific markets/bookmakers (unless they limit me ) but since my balance is finite, I was just wondering if the all-time yield for these sharps was worth it or if I should find other ways to bet on softies.
Thanks @Simon! Sorry if there was any confusion, I guess we were just no talking about the same thing. I of course know you can’t predict the future I was hoping you could share more insights into how the users using Sportmarket and BetInAsia are generating the 3% yield that you were writing about in the other thread.
Having data per bookmaker, sport and market, would be extremely helpful. I understand the significance issue though. My proposal would be: Just dump an Excel/CSV in the Forum with ALL the data you can share and have the users analyze on their own, instead of making easily accessible nice graphs. I would assume that the users who go the way to analyze data from an excel are the ones who can also understand the significance of the data. And like that, you would also not be making any “recommendations” to the users, as everyone is making their own.
I was trying to analyze my own data and find correlations between profit and time before match start/value/odds, in order to determine if any of the settings would be significantly wrong. But I could not find any correlation beating a p-value of 0.05.
@Simon I find your response unbelievable! You’ve just launched your pro product which is all about betting on sharps and exchanges but here you’re saying umm I don’t know if you can make as any money from sharps! Wtf?!
Obviously we’d all bet on softs if we could. But I found your product after having my soft accounts closed and seeing your ad promoting value betting with sharps and exchanges as a way to continue.
Why are you promoting this if you don’t even know that it works?
I never said that. In fact you can make some amazing profts from sharps. It’s just more difficult and might take longer before the variance evens out. I just want you to know the risks before you dive in with the sharks
@Shey and @GoingForGold, here are updated stats (until we have a proper automatic report):