Hi,
I tried with min setting at a lower level and it will catch more bets. But I found those bets to be of a “lower” quality. With that, I mean, that the chances of those bets actually beating the CLV is lower.
For example a newly opened tennis match bet at Bet365 is often at 1.83 on both players.
The Vig (the commission or “juice” the bookie makes) is 9,28%.
Most of the time you want something more than 2% on those 9%…
After I raised my min Value to 3.9 (sometimes a few points higher and sometimes a few lower; depending on how many VB bets shows up to catch) I got much better results. Also, I have not been below 3,8 since I adjusted for my horrible two weeks when I started. With Kelly staking you should still be able to get your bankroll working since a higher value bet will suggest higher stake.
In any case, choose ONE strategy and do not change too frequently. Give it a week, or two, and then evaluate.
Usually when there is a significant change in profit I update my bankroll, maybe once or twice a day. I usually keep it a smidgen below what it actually is and then I bump it up a bit with the profits. So if there is a slight downturn I just leave it alone and usually it recovers during the day/night.
Hi, after two weeks with these new settings I see that the growth is slower and more constant in fact I had reached -399, then I took a negative strick and went back to -600 and now I am always between -400 and -600. I always keep time to start of 36H and I leave it like this even on the weekend, also on the weekend as you said I try not to play those under 4%, and for this month the games played have an average of 27 compared to 40 last month
It moves in the right direction but why so few bets? My screenshot is from Monday evening when there are few bets available and I have far more bets in play.
On weekends I have more then 100 bets in play (with 30% Kelly).
No, I almost always play football and tennis.
I used to wear basketball until it came out but lately it’s not coming out anymore, besides basketball in the percentage is very bad.
I never played the rest of the sports, I only set these 3
I advice you to not change settings to early, please see this post about why the volume of bets are important. All sports have a positive yield - it´s all about placing many bets. That´s what value betting is all about.
Yes, I know that every sport must have many games played in fact, I haven’t taken out basketball but lately I’m not putting them on because it doesn’t come out.
Furthermore, Italian bet365 does not allow to put O / U on the score including overtime
Why did you go back to %30 kelly? Also can i ask what is your max stake with %30? I think %1.8 max stake limits too much with odds lower than 1.50 with %30 Kelly.
I have always used Kelly but before I understood it properly I had some weird settings (limited too much by the max stake). I have max stake set at 2,4% or it will limit Kelly to much.
Increase MIN value to at least 3.8-3.9, when it’s below 3.7, it’d become very tricky (still doable, just tricky.) If you want to be more sure, increase it to MIN 4.6-4.8
Decrease max time to match start to 8 hours if you want to hit positive CLV more often. For Bet365 Tennis, I think max time can be 36 hours, but if you want to be more sure, 17 hours is fine.
Hi, it’s doing very well now with valuebetting.
I wanted to ask if you know if and when it starts blocking the bet365 account with the bet increase, because I now have the stake at € 45 but I can increase it because my capital is going up
