A lot of false value bets recently, CLV profit stuck

I have been running really bad recently, but there’s something that has been worring me more, and that is that after placing about 40 to 50 bets per day the CLV profit increases almost nothing, so that means I’m just… wasting my time? I leave you an example of yesterday’s morning and today’s morning, CLV stucked on the same amount after 53 bets, and it’s NOT THE FIRST TIME IT HAPPENS. Also, I leave you my settings so you can tell me if I’m doing something wrong.

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I’m not talking about the yield or the real profit, i’m talking about the CLV, even today after a lot of bets my CLV profit went down instead of going up, so what’s going on?

If CLV is dropping more from value bet percentage (more than normal) - it means the sharps are being more uncertain than normal.


So, what can we do about that? And also what can you do about that?

The effect might already be gone. But I would recommend increasing min value to at least 4% for a while.

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I thought that the absence of systematic risk was one of the advantages of value betting. But it looks like it is not the case

In the last few days clv is going down again ( bet365). What do the admns have to say about it?

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Not sure what you mean, value betting is not without risk. Just because there’s a verified edge of 3%+ doesn’t mean the road there will be without downswings.
If you want less risk, use sure betting.

I cannot see any significant drop in CLV the last weeks on Bet365. And the yield last week was crazy good (8.2%):


that is a very interesting one.
Thinking out loud: would this be because most money is then shifted towards WC games, then as a result less information is captured in odds of other game, meaning sharp bookies have more difficulties setting up their odds (and also that other markets are less liquids) ? As they have more difficulties, they would manage the risk by increasing their margin temporarily. I guess this assumption is sort of similar to you what you mention in your post.
In any case, I find it fascinating that the effect is recurring. Just showing how “alive” are odds market :slight_smile:

Do you suggest to keep betting on events with >4% value as you posted a few weeks ago? ( don’t remember if it was you or the other admn)

u might be right about lots of flase value bets cause loads of them value disappeared after u placed them which u probably didnt know about it.