I only bet using bet365 mainly.
Am I doing something wrong? or it’s just how it is?
I see people getting good results here, but what’s wrong with mine?

Screenshot 2022-11-22 113135

You’re just between 1 and 2 standard deviations from the expected profit. It sucks, but it’s not extremely unlikely.

You should be closer to the flat yield, what is your bankroll, kelly and max stake? Post your Bet365 filter (if they are not the default) as well and we might be able to help.

Also, I just wrote a post that might help you and others that feel unlucky: How to analyze and improve your value betting results

Here is my setting tab.
tinkered a bit from the default.
Screenshot 2022-11-22 184707

I do not want to be rude but your question has been answered so many times in the forum!
I’ll help you out by copy-paste a previous answer to someone who asked exactly the same thing.
In the future put some effort into it and see if someone already posted a similar question.

Set as follows:

    1. Odds: min1.4 max2.5 (if few bets you can raise it to 2.7)
    1. Turn of AFOB
    1. Reduce Kelly to 25% (will reduce variability and reduce chances for losses. However it also reduces chances to maximise profit - which is Kelly at 100%). Once you are in profit you can raise Kelly to 30%)
    1. Update bankroll once a day.
    1. Raise max stake to 4%
    1. Sort bets according time to match start.
    1. If the event is more than 24h to start reduce the stake with 50% (you do not want to tie up too much capital for long periods)
    1. Put down lots of bets. I am at (2022-11-20) at over 14.000 bets.

Nope don’t raise max stake to 4% leave leave it at 1% or stake $10

Clearly I disagree.
I am at over 200k SEK profit with max stake at 4%.
What is your reasoning for max stake at 1%? You pretty much turn a significant number of your bets into flat staking.

Yeah downside of 1% stake is that your bets are literally flat stakes. Allows for more open bet and more flexibility with turnover also resulting in lesser variance. You rarely see Normal yield outperforming flat yield on this platform so no need to risk unnecessarily

I do not understand what you wrote. Normal yield vs. flat yield?
More open bet and flexibility?

Flexibility in the sense of: having 200 bets open after all vb is all about volume rather than having 75 large bets open

Flat yield: yield from flat staking
Normal yield: yield affected by Kelly factoring

So i’m still debating wether I should go with 1% or 4%.

I’ve searched the forums and most go with 1% no?

Go with 1 percent bro, variance is a thing.

it depends what Maximum Drawdown % you’re comfortable with. Professional hedge funds aim for max 10%

Go with 1, not 4 :joy: like @Lm10 said it’s all about volume, it’s about how many bets you place (place as much as you can)

I keep it between 1-2%

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