Any luck with exchanges?

I’ve not been vb long but I’m considering the inevitable future when I’m limited & I’ve exhausted all my friends/families account. Thought about using rebelbetting to find value bets on as many soft bookies as poss, then placing those bets on betfair/smarkets exchange in the hopes that the odds will hit & the bets get matched. I know they won’t all get matched but if even half of bets placed does, would this be profitable long term? Has anyone had any luck doing this or something similar?

Ive been limited/gubbed with several bookies already , too. A thought crossed my mind, and I know “purists” will shoot me down in flames…but after 3 full months Ive noticed ( in my experiences) I have a good deal more winning bets than losers. I wonder if anyone has ever tried placing the bets as RB software shows as value bets , eg U21, +.5 FH etc…with any bookie that will offer those samemarkets eg Tonybet …which has a huge market range. …and take whatever odds they offer-----as a profit is a profit, right? In some instances the odds are not that different , and rarer still, are BETTER than the bookies RB have displayed. Any thoughts? ( Im getting desparate to be able to continue value betting long term) I guess this idea is not disimilar to Smythe07’s above.

I hear you Audiman. Ive come from matched betting & have few gubbed accounts from that too. That’s an interesting idea. I don’t have a large enough no of bets atm to determine my win/loss ratio (I’m a little over the 800 bet Mark) but there might be something in that. Perhaps you can improve ur chances of success by identifying which types of bets win more than the ones that lose & only focus on those value bets, especially if you might possibly be taking lower odds with a sharp bookie/exchange? Just a suggestion, I’m no expert haha but for me baseball & tennis show great value - first set winner in particular. Its great if you are able to get even better value than what RB show but would you set yourself a minimum odds range to bet on or just place at whatever odds & try and get as many bets down as you can?

Its strange you say Baseball is good for you:-
I am -
soccer 2481 bets 6.1% yield
tennis 1416 bets 4.8% yield
basketball 691 bets 1.5% yield
esport 518 bets 4.3% yield and BASEBALL…194 bets -6.0% ! I keep disabling baseball because it sucks for me…how come its profitable for you? do you restrict bet types? Cheers

I do something similar when I run out of money on a particular bookmaker. I only have £100 in Unibet but over £1000 with Bet365. I can pretty much do every bet on 365 but sometimes run out of money on Unibet so instead of going to options and deleting Unibet from my list of bookmakers I will take the Unibet odds and place them on Betfair. Sometimes I’m even cheeky enough to ask for a bigger price on Betfair than what I would have got on Unibet.

There are two drawbacks. Betfair doesn’t have as many markets as Unibet and the odds might not immediately be available so I don’t know whether to LOG the bet in the tracker.

great idea…you would need higher odds though, to compensate the Betfair tax :slight_smile:

Beginners luck with the baseball? Haha i have no idea & I dont filter any sports/markets, still early days for me tho. Yield on your esports is great considering its far less bets than the other sports Audiman, shame there isnt as many bookies that have good value esports. Unibet has started stake restricted me but only on esports…for now!! I like what Higgins01 is up to - get bigger prices on betfair than even RB is offering. Is that with the 2% or 5% commission?

One way around commission is using Smarkets & signing up for 0% commission with 1 of their affiliates - however liquidity might be an issue with them. I’ve tried Betconnect too, which is a really good concept but very few bets ever seem to get matched & there isnt enough markets - hasnt been around long enough tho so hopefully will improve in time.

Ive just checked my reports , and baseball has worsened from -6% to nudging over -7% , after a further 12 bets…its in the Sin Bin for me for the foreseeable again :)…Im leaving Basketball a little longer though…as its not worsening…but since I turned basketball and baseball on, ive lost >£100 on them in 48 hrs. In my case, I dont want to be subsidising it from my other profits,
Ive run out of beginners luck :slight_smile:

Could you log the bets in the tracker then check in on betfair & if they dont get matched, remove them from the tracker?

Good to know Audiman. I may consider doing the same going forward if the general consensus is those sports aren’t long term profitable. Could also prolong some bookmakers if I’m focusing on bigger sports (football/tennis)??

Rebel Betting team insist they are profitable long term…Ive only been going 3 months, but early on noticed american sports were crap for me. each time I disable the markets my profits shot up…then I got cocky seeing the profits and turned them back on , to see a downturn on my graph within 48 hrs. Ive done this on and off about 5 times…but this time I m defo leaving Baseball disabled.

This is my 9th day of VB so I’m definitely a newbie compared to you guys so I might just stay with the filters I have until I can see a noticeable pattern, not totally confident to start changing things just yet. Little over £500 profit so far though, so doing something right haha.

Thanks for your responses - its a great help knowing I’m not the only one out there wondering these sorts of things. Appreciate the info. I’m going to test the waters with Betfair & Smarkets at some point when some of my soft bookies have closed their doors on me

great to see your profit…fyi after 9 days i was £470.58 up too! so we both had beginners luck:)

That’s good to hear. Let’s hope we can all keep it up for as long as possible squeezing every bit of value out these bookies!

what s your setting ??
i been doing 19 days hardly making any money. been placing alomst 1000 bets. just wonder may my setting is something wrong

My settings are 25% Kelly staking with adjust for open bets ticked. Max stake of 1%. I look for bets within 48hrs start time & choose bets closest to start rather than highest value %. Value range 2 to 25% & odds range 1.4 to 2.9.

I hope that helps you, mine is a somewhat conservative setting (1% max stake & 25% Kelly) so profits could be larger sooner if you increase odds & Kelly staking but so will the variance so I’m just sticking with the above as it seems to be working for me. Best of luck wf1205

Hi @Smythe07, i was thinking about this post last night and thought id drop a quick note on as one point you’d made hadnt been picked up by anyone.

From what i understand, you can place the bets anywhere you can get value, so Tony or Smarkets would be fine, but you can’t just take any old odds. They have to be higher than the true probability of an event happening.

Go back to the coin flip. 1000 flips should give you 500 heads and 500 tales. The true odds would be 2.0, and guessing the outcome of the coin flip would break even (roughly) over tye 1000 flips. The bookie will offer you 1.9, so that after the 1000 flips, you’d be down by 10%. RB finds where the bookies are offering 2.05, meaning that you’d be up 5% after the 1000 flips. So if you translate to the bets that RB offer, you may go on a winning streak using non enhanced odds from other bookies, but any losing streak will take you into negative equity because you don’t have tgat additional buffer to ride the storm.

So, if you can set bets up on an exchange to match the value and they trigger, that would be fine. But taking 1.8 at Tony when the 5% RB suggestion was 2.1 at Bet365 is not a good idea. (Long live Bet365 and all who sail in her).

I hope that is of help.

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i tried smarkerts with rb value start pack. i dont think it works as not many bets got matched. people dont take the odd u asking or bidding

Long live bet365 indeed! Still making up the bulk of my profit with them but have had some success with the exchange so asking for higher price on exchanges seems to be working so far @Notmyname. After getting limited with unibet, I’m placing those bets on exchange. Early days & about half don’t get matched but I’m up £100 on betfair, £70 on smarkets & £80 on betconnect this month. Hoping this isn’t a blip & profit continues. The challenge with vb is to keep it long term after bookie bans. Hope others are having success with this method.

At the end of the day, you’re at no loss if they don’t get matched, so you might as well… just creates a bit more admin to tidy it up. And you can push harder if you want… afterall, there are plenty of mugs on the exchanges giving value without realising it. I will give it more of a go. Not always easy to find the same markets.