I think Kelly stakes helps camouflage bets better than flat staking. I think a trader is more inclined to have a filter set up this says 'flag anyone taking > £100 liability on any low low tier leagues. So if your flat staking £50 on 1.8 and 2.8 for example you taking £90 liability on the first and £140 on the other. Personally I keep to < £100 liability and < £50 stake and split stakes when I need to. This is all just my personal opinion with no proof aside from anecdotal.
I mean low min odds. On 5% value on 1.2 odds, Kelly would like to wager a higher amount compared to 5% value on 2.9 odds.
Yeah, but that just leads to less variance
I am not sure that it does. Even if it did, it also leads to less profit (and that has been proven).
Anyway, keep doing what works for you.
Yeah, I’m not trying to argue that Kelly is less optimal than flat staking, it definitely is more optimal, I was just saying its not perfect, and actually be worse than flat staking if you don’t use a percentage, or if you don’t have an edge of course
Why would it lead to less profit? And where is this proven?
Real world results and in simulations. Search for it.
We have digressed and @LolloB has, I believe, gotten his answer.
If you have some info that low odds lead to worse profits for users, then why not share those results and simulations so the rest of us can improve our betting?
I did not say low odds lead to lower profits. Some users have great results with low odds. I gave example where low odds paired with low max percentage stake breaks the Kelly.
Oh, but what did you mean that leads to less profit then?
I was explaining how the Kelly breaks on low odds. It will not break on high odds unless the +EV% is very high.
If you break the Kelly, or if you just choose flat staking, and look at betting results over 10k+ bets then the yield is lower with flat staking. That is how I know from members results that they bet with severely limited (in essence broken) Kelly. Their yield is lower than the flat yield. My yield is 0.6 points higher than the flat yield. Think about it. Why would you stake the same amount on a +9%EV bet as on a +3%EV bet (everything else equal)? Why incorporate Kelly in the software if the result would be the same as flat staking?
Take your pick.
For the value percentage that’s quite obvious, but what is the effect of betting on low odds? So for example how does a bet with 1.3 odds compare to a bet with 2.0 odds, given that the value% is the same?
That is obvious.
In the long run lower odds lead to less variance, but the same average profit (given that the value% is the same).
To test it for yourself you can use the Value betting simulator
Put in 100 000 bets and test it with different odds. The profit is the same
Thank you all for the help!
Anyway, my results are still not changing and I think that betting it’s not for me (only 1 day in positive and CLV profit is flying away).
I’ll give up soon.
As a fellow newbie, I thought it would be worth sharing my experience. As you can see from the chart, I was in negative for a considerable period (over 1400 bets) before things started to go my way. I’m now over £400 in profit after 2500 bets, which is still below the CLV profit, but it’s headed the right direction. After 900 bets, I reduced the max odds to 2.0. Min odds are set to 1.4. This has probably reduced variance, as others have mentioned above, but I don’t think it is the reason why negative has become profit. I was just trying to get to grips with how variance works and decided I would like to minimise variance (good and bad) as I find it easier to work with. I’ve found the community helpful to find information e.g. learn about variance etc and happy to give something back to help others. I’m happy with my results so far and will continue to place more bets.
whats working for you, see you are in sweden too as me (Y)
Whats your settings , kelly, % max bet etc.
Och använder du svenska spel någpt? vet att att de är lite lägre volym men har haft ganska bra resultat där
Hi, I’m from Italy.
My settings below (nothing so special)
I can understand variance and value, but the results aren’t good (waste of money and time). I think that’s it is all about luck in the end
PS: 1xbet limited me! I’ve no earnings and one book limited me! I was trying to trust the process again, but now I will leave.