December results

The yield in December is lower than average, 1.4% compared to the four-month average of 2.58%.

One reason is that our source bookmakers have underperformed, with a closing line value of 1.36% compared to an average of 2.91%. (82% of all bets in December still beat the closing line).

However, when excluding value bets on sharp bookmakers (which we don’t recommend unless you’re an advanced trader), the yield in December is 2.3%, which is just slightly below an average month.

Breakdown of these “soft” value bets depending on Pro/Starter version:

Starter version / old sources only: 2.1% yield
Pro version / new source only: 4.9% yield, exceptionally good.

So our recommendation is still: don’t value bet on sharp bookmakers unless you really know what you’re doing.


Thanks Simon,

A couple of questions, if I may

questions on the sharps:

Does that mean that they had a negative yield compared to closing line?

And by the way what do you mean with “know what they’re doing”? I mean you make recommendations and we make the booking. There’s not much more to “know”. What’s your expectation towards the user?

Not sure if it has an impact ob the numbers, but as you might know, BetInAsia odds keep breaking every couple days. Right now they are down since 29 Dec.

I am really looking to get the closing line odds in BetTracker. I can legally only use sharps and I have no idea whether I even have a chance this way. If you need beta testers, very happy to do it. :blush:

question on the result:
I see your yield numbers, your numbers on beating closing line, and so on. But I don’t understand how this ends up in those bad profit numbers (for all the members). I could only understand if that would mean the average bet size has decreased dramatically. Can you explain where the change to before is coming from?

I am in that gray zone of starter permitted to use sharps that I already used…

(Betfair, SMarkets and Pinnacle, I think they are PRO now)

So, Am I just missing from the PRO the VBs higher than 10%?

What bad profit numbers? Do you mean total profits in December? They are around € 90.000. Sure, profits were double that in November.

Yield for only sharps value bets is 0.2%. You must expect lower yield when betting on sharp bookmakers, and months with negative yield unless you have found a system that works. This is why we only recommend it for experienced traders.

We will add closing lines. And we are also considering adding performance numbers per bookmaker and month so users can make more educated decisions.

Thanks Simon, the insight is appreciated.

So if sharps yield is 0.2%, and the Pro fee is €149.-, that means I need to move €75k per month only to cover the fee…Guess I need to think about how/if I can manage this somehow profitable.
I guess it’s less a question of “experience” but rather of “bankroll”

I must say I had profit in december. Not lying, I had.
I was ROI 940% till last week october, then dropped to 800% till mid december, then I am now over 1.060%.
So, if I got it, more people got it too, I don´t feel I am an exception.

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The majority of our users are not in this community unfortunately. Of those who are, only a fraction are active (most are just reading and not participating in the discussions).

If anyone have an idea how to get more users to participate in this channel we are all ears!

oh an one more question on booking on sharps. I understand that in general, closing line yield EV is lower than the EV we currently see. For me, EV is over 4%, only booking on sharps. Does that mean that on sharps the “error” in this number is bigger than on softs? And if it is, why is that?

Maybe I have been over reacting and maybe my downswing is just variance. Profits are approximately 50% of November (87,000 vs 166,000) and the yield is approximately 50% (1.4% vs 2.58%). So the figures stack up.

A little worrying that this is down to the source bookmakers under performing. There were 177,000 bets in December so that has got to even out any variance. Are the bookmakers under performing or is this their new performance level?

Personally, my results for December using the pro version (from whenever in December it was launched) were:

Total Bets: 1125
Average Value: 4.7%
Average Odds: 2.02
Total Staked: £51,161
Expected Value: £2,446
Profit: - £592
Yield: - 1.2%

My November stats were:

Total Bets: 1767
Average Value: 4.9%
Average Odds: 2.13
Total Staked: £75,773
Expected Value: £3,841
Profit: £3,551
Yield: 4.7%

And October:

Total Bets: 1435
Average Value: 5.3%
Average Odds: 2.11
Total Staked: £52,142
Expected Value: £2,924
Profit: £4,483
Yield: 8.6%

So all in all Rebel Betting has been fantastic for me and I have never found something this successful in the gambling industry. Perhaps my good early results have spoiled me and made my expectation too high. A downswing at some point was inevitable.

Anyway, I am going to start again in January and see how it goes. In December I bet less, partly due to the poor results and partly due to time available to me. Perhaps I missed out on some winning streaks which would have otherwise improved my results for the month. I’m limited to Bet365 and 888Sports, so I will continue with these two soft bookies and hope for a good month :smiley:

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I am below the average user during December, this being my first month, more than 2000 bets in, should i read anything else than variance into to the below average result?

Depends on if you’re betting on sharps or not, but I doubt your yield is outside of one standard deviation of the average.

I have been placing bets at bet365, atg and bwin (blocked on the last one after just a few hundred bets and without that one i would have been negative)