Many customers and community members are asking this question.
The answer is no, you should not evaluate your results and settings too early. Unless you have placed thousands of value bets in each sport and each bet type, you cannot accurately evaluate their performance. Why? Because of variance.
So try not to dive too deep into your own statistics if you are just at the start of your value betting career. If you for example remove a sport after just 100 bets, you might miss the next upswing, locking in your loss.
This article explains why it’s important to think long-term, place many bets and look at the bigger picture. With enough bets, all bet types and sports have good results. Some are better than others of course.
Here’s another important note; we constantly analyze our performance and make improvements. We make sure to fine-tune and remove everything that isn’t profitable. We want you to make as much money as possible using our products.
Since we also use our own products, this is very much in our own best interest - we have skin in the game.
As a beginner, the default settings are made especially for you. They are customized to give you optimal profit, with little risk and a solid stake sizing strategy.
If you’re the cautious type and want to trade smaller downswings for less profit, you can decrease the Kelly stake sizing from 30% to 25% (or even 20%). Note that changing this while in a downswing will significantly increase the time before you’re back at your expected value.
P.S We’re working on giving you more big data statistics on a regular basis, with monthly reports. Stay tuned for this!
Also - you’ve got some impressive results last month - again!
/Hanna and the RebelBetting team