Do you know what the three options circled in the picture mean?
May I have a look at your report?
Hi!
I would also add my experience of the last month, and I confirm a large drawdown in the last month. My settings are stake sizing: 30%, max stake: 2%.
I try to post a screenshot of the graph. The number of bets is approx 1200.
In previous months the performance was quite good, so this large drawdown comes quite unexpectedly. I also think that lately - at least on the market I’ve been playing on (Soccer, 3-Way) - the estimation of the bet values given by the software is quite wrong.
It seems that I’m not alone. Wouldn’t that be the case if we improved the winning rate by analyzing the data?
@Simon
I don’t think so. It doesn’t seem to be a prediction. Some people will make money if they are lucky and others will lose money if they are unlucky.
May I have a look at your report of BetTracker ?
I think that the issue is on the uncertainty on the calculation of the value. I trust that the ValueBetting team, or their algorithms that is, do their best to calculate the expected value, but an uncertainty is always present. Please Bjorn correct me if I’m wrong.
The problem arises when the uncertainty is too skewed towards the negative side, as it seems to be over the last month (at least, again, on the market I’m betting on).
What in particular would you like to see?
It couldn’t be a bookmaker issue? I mean, they use the same algorithm for each bookmaker? At which bookmaker do you place your bets? Because, I bet at four (Unibet, 888, Sportingbet and a local one) and I am very satisfied with my results.
Could you please expand on that? In which way could be a bookmaker issue?
I’m placing my bets on a single bookmaker (Bet365) and I also thought it could be a bookmaker issue, but how? Once the bet is placed at the given odds, I cannot imagine of a way the bookmaker could skew the results. Void bets shouldn’t influence the stats, as the money are returned. Maybe half won bets could be an issue, but I don’t see any reported on the bet tracker. But maybe they could cheat in other ways I presently cannot picture…
On the other hand, couldn’t it be instead that the estimated expected value of the bets at a particular bookmaker (in this case, Bet365) are inaccurate?
I was trying to figure out something like your last sentence. Maybe the algorithm works perfectly with one bookmaker, but with another one just cracks. I wasn’t talking that the bookmakers are cheating, because they obviously do, always. For me the limitations and blocking are a really big cheat and an unprofessional behaviour.
I agree. I got already limited by at least three bookmakers, and, incidentally, that’s one of the reasons why I’m presently betting on Bet365, until of course they will go that way as well. Unless, again, they have already found another method to limit the gains of - or, better in this case, ruin - who places value bets.
@RoyCao I feel you should ask @Simon how he makes profit on his value bets. I feel you need a unique strategy and not just put money on any bet you see on the software. Copy and paste @Simon professional settings.
He also mentioned something like staking on high odds. I don’t know how he does it but it must be working for him.
I wonder why you are not being limited when you lose some money, too…
When you got blocked, did you use more than one account at the same bookmaker? Did you play at more than one bookmaker at the same time?
Are you restricted by value betting? How long did it last?
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Simon doesn’t seem to want to go into details, but it’s possible to guess that they’ve used a number of bankers who are good at predicting certain games to improve the winning rate.
The bookmakers you use will influence your profits hugely.
But most important is to understand the inherent randomness of value betting. Two users playing at the same bookmaker can have a very different yield. Especially after just a couple of thousand bets.
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Even if they place the very same bets? If so, could you please expand on that? Thanks!
What do you mean?
Bookmakers are limiting, not value betting.
If you refer to the bookmakers, the limiting seemed to be continuous, so eventually I withdrew my money (thing that, in some cases, was not that quite straightforward) and quit them.
No. I actually never had more than one account per bookmaker.
Yes.
Will the 15 odds increase the risk too much?